Anyone who has followed the deadly manoeuvres North and South between the security forces and the various Republican splinter-groups opposed to the Belfast Agreement is likely to have been resigned to the bleak inevitability that sooner or later a bomb would get through the surveillance or that some major attack would be successfully mounted. But few could have anticipated the scale of bloodshed which was visited upon the innocent people of Omagh on Saturday afternoon, or imagined the monstrous evil of those who lured their victims supposedly to safety while in reality drawing them to the most advantageous killing spot.
Few would have thought it likely either that the worst single atrocity of Northern Ireland's 30 years of troubles would follow so closely upon the endorsement of the agreement by the great majority of people in both parts of Ireland. John Hume has given the perpetrators of this appalling crime their proper name. They are not just murderers. They are, in the literal sense of the word, fascists, seeking to overthrow the wishes of the people through terror. And, as with all fascists, they are skilled at utilising violence to give themselves an influence and power which they are unable to secure at the ballot box.
They would have their will imposed over the mangled bodies of children and mothers, over the ruined lives of the limbless and the sightless. They aim to thwart the agreement by denying the community the peace for which it voted. Retaliation by loyalists, along with a loss of nerve and resolution among the parties in the Assembly, would be their dearest wish. The object of their violence is to make democratic politics unworkable.
Hence the priority of the two Governments and the elected representatives must be to make it clear that the arrangements emerging under the terms of the agreement will not be derailed. Both the Taoiseach and the Prime Minister have been swift to do so. Contacts at the highest levels will continue to ensure that there is unity of purpose and position not just between the Governments but between the Assembly parties as well. It is the responsibility of all those who have been elected to office to affirm that, even in the face of such unrestrained savagery, the overwhelming majority which has voted for compromise will have that choice vindicated.
With equal urgency the authorities must move swiftly to mobilise every appropriate security measure which is available to them. It is clear, after a period in which the Garda successfully intercepted a succession of bombing operations, that the members of these groups are now once again capable of evading surveillance. If there is any question of resources needing to be made available either to the Garda or to the RUC those needs must be met immediately. It may also be necessary to consider the legal powers available to the security forces dealing with groups with few members which have access to deadly materials and are prepared to use them ruthlessly in pursuit of their objectives.
The principled arguments against internment which may have applied in the absence of a fullyfledged democratic consensus lose much of their validity when such a consensus has now been put in place. Internment may yet be an option. But at this time pragmatic considerations still weigh against any such measure simpliciter. A blunt instrument such as internment has the potential to go terribly wrong, reigniting old grievances and providing a potent propaganda weapon for those who are skilled at representing themselves as victims rather than oppressors. There are other, more precise and scarcely less effective devices to be found within this jurisdiction's emergency legislation, which have proven their worth in the past and which might profitably be replicated in Northern Ireland.
Nor should the Government hesitate to amend existing legislation or indeed to seek new legislation if it is felt necessary. The people of Ireland gave their decision in the May referendums and those who now seek to defy that decision by murder must be taken out of circulation. But, insofar as is possible, this should be effected through criminal prosecution, albeit with special legislation and in special courts, rather than by administrative diktat.
Inevitably, the processes of prisoner releases and the issue of arms decommissioning are raised by this atrocity. It is unlikely that there are connections between any of the IRA prisoners who have been released and the bombing campaign of the so-called "Real IRA". But it is highly probable that essential components of the Omagh bomb (and others) have come from IRA caches where they have been under the control of members who are sympathetic to, or who have gone over to, the new grouping. Mr Gerry Adams has condemned the Omagh atrocity. But it must be clear that the mainstream Republican movement for which he speaks is either unwilling, or unable, to prevent the use of this weaponry in violation of the IRA's declared ceasefire. All of the Sinn Fein leadership's strategy has been posited on the necessity of avoiding a split in the Provisional movement. It must now be beyond dispute that such a split has in fact taken place.
Certain consequences must be expected to flow from this. If a section of the Republican movement has effectively rejected the leadership and is acting in defiance of its orders, the leadership must renounce it not just verbally but with actions as well. If the Provisional movement will not decommission, and if it cannot control the use of its materiel, it has a responsibility, at the very least, to allow the security forces to recover it and render it harmless. Mr Adams and his supporters cannot stand with other democratically-elected representatives and simultaneously tolerate the fascists who reject democracy and who remain committed to violence. Mr Adams's condemnation will ring hollow indeed if next week another town is blown apart with explosives which are supposedly under the control of the Provisional IRA.
Atrocities such as this may appear momentarily to swing the control of events away from democratically-elected representatives to those who can only live by violence. But experience has shown that in the longer term such acts isolate those who choose the bomb and the gun and, in fact, consolidate the desire for peace. The bombers of Omagh can have no victory unless it is surrendered to them by those who have been charged by the vote of the people with building Northern Ireland's new democracy. It is a time for cool thinking, for courage and for determination. Those who seek peace and accommodation might borrow the maxim of Terence MacSwiney, devised in a very different historical context. Victory comes not to those who can inflict most but to those who can endure most.