If we are going to have a change of taoiseach or a general election – or both – it would be better to get on with it. Enda Kenny’s days seem numbered, and unless he can stage an unlikely comeback he needs to depart the stage quickly. With the big decisions the country faces there is no time for a “ long goodbye.”
There is never a good time to change taoiseach or have an election. But we do have a bit of breathing space.There is now a window – a period when the economy may sail on reasonably comfortably and before we are faced with the really big decisions over Brexit and the potential impact of the new US president on inward investment.
But the window is not likely to remain open for very long. And we need some solid political arrangement in place soon which can deal with what is to come. Because over the summer things could really start to hot up, particularly as the Brexit talks get under way in earnest.
First things first. If Kenny is to name a date to step aside – as his party seems to demand – then he must do so soon, and the date must not be too far in advance. Forget this nonsense about giving the departing leader "time and space" or about staying on until May to become the longest serving Fine Gael taoiseach. In politics or business, where your're gone you're gone. That's the deal.
Nor does it seem to make sense, as some have suggested, that Kenny should stay on to start the Brexit talks and go sometime later in the year because all the signs are that it will be the summer or autumn when the key talking really gets going. Surely it would be better to sort the leadership issue before the hard talking begins?
This is particularly the case because the change of leadership may trigger a general election. And here we have the risk of more delay. If just for example, the Taoiseach was to stay on until May, and we had an election in June, we might not have a new government until well into the summer.
‘Bed in’
And it could all drag on even longer.There could be a gap between the leadership change and the general election, with talk of a new Fine Gael leader being given time to “bed in”.
Last time there was more than two months between the election date and the new government taking office. This could go on and on.
The good news is that we do have some leeway at the moment. Everyone had expected Brexit to hit the UK economy hard by now, knocking on to Ireland. In the event, British growth has remained reasonably strong, and sterling, after an initial dip, has steadied.
Irish growth, as a result, has remained strong. Confidence and other indicators suggest that the economy took a hit in the wake of the Brexit vote, but has since recovered.
Brexit will take its toll on Britain and us, but the day of reckoning could still be a while away.
Likewise, the impact of the new US president has yet to feed through. His policies could have a marked impact on the flow of US direct investment to Ireland and other markets in the years ahead. This will depend on decisions to be taken over the next few months, and how this will play out is not yet clear.
Encouragingly, positive momentum is continuing at present as seen from big announcements this week from jobs website Indeed and tech giant Microsoft. But as the Trump tax policies take shape, there could be big decisions for Ireland. The positive economic cycle we have seen over the past few years could continue for a while yet but there are clouds on the horizon.
Key markers
Meanwhile, Britain will trigger the formal EU exit process, and we can expect that Brexit talks will start in late March. The critical talks are likely to take place in the second half of this year and moving into 2018. Ireland will want to set down some key markers, and hopefully get early agreement on issues such as the Common Travel Area.
We will need a government with its eye on the ball on Brexit, on Trump and on the possibly disruptive impact of key European elections, particularly in France.
This is why we must do everything possible to have a stable political situation from the middle of this year on. Of course this cannot be guaranteed. Events often intervene, as do personalities and the numbers game in the Dáil.
The good news is that we do have some leeway at the moment. Everyone had expected Brexit to hit the UK economy hard by now, knocking on to <a class="search" href='javascript:window.parent.actionEventData({$contentId:"7.1213540", $action:"view", $target:"work"})' polopoly:contentid="7.1213540" polopoly:searchtag="tag_location">Ireland</a>
There is no guarantee that the New Politics Mark 2 which might emerge after a general election will be any better than the current set up. But if an election is going to happen sooner or later, better it be sooner because we do not need a political vacuum when the big decisions falls to be made and the key negotiates to be done from this summer on.
It is not the Taoiseach or the Government’s fault, but Brexit, the Trump impact on investment and the prospect of the interest rate cycle turning over the next few years all bring particular challenges. We have a bit of time before these hit to make our plans and try to get the best deal in negotiations. But not a lot.
If the Taoiseach cannot quickly and credibly shore up support – and not just for a month or two – then he needs to name the day. And it must be soon.