Asked on Friday if Boris Johnson’s victory cleared the way for an Irish general election, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s reaction was “still not yet”. But it won’t be long coming.
The Brexit timetable leaves a gap in February – and this is surely the ideal time for an Irish election.
This would be a better time than, say, April or May, when trade talks between the EU and UK will be getting into full swing. We need to have a new government up and running here by then.
We can’t let Brexit dictate everything. But there is no other reason now to delay a general election. If it is a bit chillier trudging around the doorsteps in February compared to May, then so be it. Bring the gloves and the woolly hats.
And spare me the argument about waiting for the longer evenings or until after St Patrick’s Day.
Varadkar outlined two things he wanted to see done before an election. One is for the UK to pass the withdrawal agreement, meaning it will definitely leave by the end of January. This now looks highly likely.
The other is the restoration of Stormont before a January 13th deadline – if not new Assembly elections are due to take place.
The Dáil is due to return from its Christmas recess on January 15th. It all points to an election in mid to late February.
The narrative is that the UK result has “cleared the way” for an election here. But it is more than that.
The trade talks between the EU and UK will probably get under way in March, and will be getting up steam through spring and early summer. We need a government in place to argue Ireland’s corner here. Key inputs will also be needed from Dublin on how the new customs and regulatory regime will work in the North.
Realistically, after an election it will take time to form a new administration – possible a couple of months. All reasons to get the election done early, and for politicians afterwards not to spend too much time looking into their souls trying to interpret what the people voted for.
Transition period
Some key decisions await the next government. Much will be framed by what Johnson actually does. He has signalled that he will not extend the transition period and will head towards a harder version of Brexit, loosening links with the EU.
Yet the trade-offs involved here were not addressed in the election debate. Cutting links with the EU trading regime, as Johnson has signalled, means more barriers for UK exporters to the EU, not only in goods but also services. So would his promises that the UK will follow its own path on regulation and do new trade deals, including with US.
There are real economic dangers in this course, and doubts whether the UK, as a medium-sized economy, could even credibly set its own regulations. With a strong majority Johnson might be able to change course, though the precise shape of forces on the government benches will not be clear for some time.
He could decide to extend the transition period which the UK enters as it leaves the EU, and which is due to expire at the end of next year. This almost certainly does not leave enough time to do a full-scale trade deal, yet so far Johnson has said he will not seek to extend. He must decide by the end of June
Or he could conceivably even tilt towards a somewhat softer, less-damaging form of Brexit. But assuming he will do any of this strikes me as dangerous. We just don’t know. Maybe he doesn’t know himself. For now the most likely outcome is that he will press ahead and see if he can get some kind of a limited trade deal done with the EU by the end of next year.
Varadkar, in his first reaction, was talking up the prospect of a comprehensive trade deal between the two sides. This would be in Ireland’s interests. But Johnson has to want this to happen and make the sacrifices involved – remaining aligned to EU rules, not cutting standards and so on.
Whatever way Johnson goes, managing the Irish input into the trade talks, doing what we can to encourage the UK to seek an extension to the transition and keeping the various domestic constituencies on board requires a fully functioning government. Because there is a lot at stake.
Border checks
And there is also work to do, to agree how to implement the new customs and regulatory arrangements in Northern Ireland as set down in the withdrawal agreement to avoid the need for Irish Border checks. This job will be done by a joint EU-UK committee into which Ireland will have a key input.
There are some upsides for the North here, notably in terms of ongoing access to the EU single market as well as the UK. But there will be bureaucracy and checks too, particularly on goods entering the North from the rest of the UK. Businesses in the North are uneasy, and politically the DUP is out on a limb opposing this.
The EU will be all over this in terms of protecting unchecked or unsafe goods from entering the single market. And there are doubts about whether this complex new arrangement all be up and running by the end of 2020, which it has to be unless the transition period is extended.
For now the immediate focus will be in the House of Commons and getting Brexit “done”. But after that attention will quickly turn to the new trade talks and the special arrangements for the North. No doubt planning for a poll here in April or May when this may all be coming to the boil.
We need to get the election done.