The first findings of the 2014 census provide us with an opportunity to evaluate how we are performing as a society.
Ireland was for years a demographic exception within Europe, with very high fertility rates, low marriage rates and high levels of emigration.
The recent census shows how we are indeed becoming a “modern” European society with attendant problems.
The good news from the census is that our population continues to rise and has increased by 70 per cent from our 1961 figure of 2,818,341 to almost five million (4,761,865) in 2016.
This increase is a reflection of our rapid expansion during the Celtic Tiger era, as the expansion of the European Union facilitated the “free travel” and inward migration of workers from Eastern Europe. In 2016, 17 per cent of our population was born outside Ireland.
These immigrants had children who helped us in the recent past to retain a replacement fertility rate of 2.1 but this is no longer the case as it fell to 1.9 in 2015.
This census shows that average number of children per family fell from two in 2011 to 1.38 in 2015 and 2016.
This summary report also shows the difference between three generations of women: those aged 70-74 had 3.27 children on average, those aged 60-64 had 2.7, and those aged 40-44 had two.
Birth rate decrease
The census shows that the youngest population cohort (0-4 years) is smaller in 2016 than it was in 2011, a result of a decrease in the birth rates.
The age of first birth continues to rise in Ireland – the average age was 32.5 years in 2015, slightly older than in 2014.
The second decline in the population between 2011 and 2016 is in the age group 20-34.
The decline in the 20-24-year-olds is explained in terms of low birth rate 20 years ago – but the decline in number aged 25-29 is the result of recent high net outward migration.
A growing, productive labour force is a key issue in staving off a demographic ageing crisis
Many families all over the country will have witnessed high emigration of their young qualified and skilled workers during the recent austerity crisis and such emigration may have lasting effects on our demographic profile.
We have seen acute labour shortages in Ireland in key sectors (for example, healthcare and IT) so the question remains as to whether this lost generation will return to Ireland.
It is important to note that 2016 figures also showed that many Irish emigrants had returned from the UK, Australia, the United States and other European countries, in that order, but their age categories are not included in this first report.
We know that the late 20s and 30s are key family-formation years. Lower salaries, high taxes and precarious employment, high costs of rent and unaffordable housing are all disincentives for many Irish to return and are forcing others to leave the country.
A growing, productive labour force is a key issue in staving off a demographic ageing crisis, which has been a main concern in other European societies. This age dependency issue is also noted in this first census report.
Living longer
There is, of course, a good-news aspect to this. People are living longer in Ireland, so we have an increasing dependent ageing population. Anyone 65 or older is categorised as dependent.
There are 296,837 men and 340,730 women aged 65 or older.
The census is a wake-up call – water is the least of our worries
The number of men in that age category increased by 22 per cent since 2011, compared with an increase of 16 per cent for women. If we examined the oldest age group – 85 or older – we find 23,062 men and 44,493 women.
Overall there are considerably advances in male life expectancy but women still live longer.
However, the census data raises some social risk issues. While the number of people declines in each older age bracket, the older the age bracket of those aged 70 or older the more likely are they to live on their own.
The figures show that almost 27 per cent of those aged 70-74 live on their own but this increases to 36 per cent of those 70-79; 46 per cent of those aged 80-84 and almost 52 per cent of those aged 85 or older, a group that totals 32,675 people.
Three in four are women. This suggests we need to put supported housing, community day care, local home helps and respite care on the policy agenda.
The census is a wake-up call for us to put these demographic issues on to our agenda – water is the least of our worries.
Evelyn Mahon is fellow emeritus at TCD’s school of social work and social policy