It has been an exceptionally long political year for President Bush. Rarely has a second-term chief executive looked so weak and vulnerable 12 months after being at the pinnacle of his authority.
This time last year Mr Bush had just been decisively re-elected, his Republican party controlled the two houses of Congress, and the Democrats were divided into quarrelling factions. He believed this gave him a mandate for an activist conservative agenda at home and maintaining the US presence in Iraq.
One year on he looks like a lame duck after his domestic reforms floundered, Hurricane Katrina exposed the administration's uncaring incompetence, a whole series of indictments and illegal acts affected leading administration officials and Congressional supporters, while the war in Iraq has gone from bad to worse. Only Richard Nixon stood lower in the opinion polls among post-war second-term presidents at this stage of their presidencies. The economy stands alone as a relative success in 2005, an advantage he tried to seize upon over the weekend.
Mr Bush has three more years in power and ample opportunity to salvage his position. That would require a clear acknowledgment of his mistakes, a new way of governing, fresh policies and a substantial shake-up of senior personnel in his administration and cabinet. There are some signs he is willing to take this course. In three successive speeches and question and answer sessions on Iraq he admitted misjudgments and invited public approval for his determination to see his policy through. A meeting with distinguished officials of former administrations followed a similar line, and there are indications he will review the pre-emptive security policy that has so antagonised friends and allies of the US.
It is difficult to exaggerate how serious are the actual and potential indictments of top administration officials and representatives. Lewis Libby, vice-president Cheney's former chief of staff, is under indictment for perjury and obstruction, and Tom DeLay, the House majority leader and his lobbying associate, Jack Abramoff, for bribery, while Mr Bush's chief adviser, Karl Rove, may not escape investigation. Revelations of wiretaps and approval of torture despite a Congressional revolt do not augur well for a more humble approach.
It is surely time to change some of the leading figures in the administration, such as the defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld and the treasury secretary John Snow. Were these to be accompanied by a disengagement from Iraq over the next year, as seems increasingly likely, Mr Bush might become more attractive to Republican candidates seeking re-election in November's mid-term votes. At present they shun his support, while the party is divided between disillusioned conservatives and confused moderates. Unless he takes such initiatives Mr Bush looks like becoming a weaker and weaker president.