Just a year ago, Martin McGuinness and Arlene Foster signed off on a joint article in which they boasted: “We firmly believe that a devolved Executive, with ministers working together effectively and collectively, is in the public interest. Imagine if we had followed the example of others and decided the challenges of government were just too daunting. That would have opened the door to years of direct rule – Conservative ministers ruling over us without a mandate. Rest assured, this Executive is not going to abandon you to that. We are in this for the long haul. There is much to do, but we are proud of the achievements to date.”
Fifty days later, the Executive collapsed. On November 1st, the Northern Ireland Secretary of State, James Brokenshire, finally admitted that a resolution to the impasse seemed unlikely. And, judging from speeches at Sinn Féin’s recent ardfheis, Gerry Adams’s stepping down will not make a button of difference to breaking the impasse.
What made this particular crisis different from all the others – and we have had many, many others since 1998 – is that no one saw it coming. Crucially, what began as a good old-fashioned political scandal about ministerial/departmental incompetence and potentially massive overspending on a renewable heat incentive scheme quickly tumbled into an entirely different and increasingly toxic us-and-them spat between the DUP and Sinn Féin. It seems that every issue, every problem, every scandal in Northern politics must always return to the fixed point of the sectarian/constitutional divide.
Unsustainable
From 1998-2007 we had the “constructive ambiguity” phase of the process: in other words, parties believed whatever they wanted to believe and interpreted every supposed agreement or understanding to suit their own ends. That proved unsustainable. The next phase, from 2007-2016, is now best understood as the “destructive clarity” phase: the parties and the general public gradually accepting the fact that reconciliation between the polar opposites of unionism and republicanism (even between the “softer” varieties of the UUP/SDLP) is not possible. Put bluntly, if there is no agreement on the constitutional future, then there is no likelihood of the sort of compromises required to shore up, or even stabilise the political institutions. And with the so called middle-ground still stuck on about 10 per cent of the electoral turnout, there is no point looking there for a tenable solution.
So, we need to face the reality that the post-1994 peace/political process is over. Twice this year I have been invited to brief international delegations about lessons to be learned from the Northern Ireland peace process. Given the fact that there has been no government this year and that the process has been dogged with serial crises and instability since day one, I’m sure the only lesson to be learned from here is “don’t do what we did”. More important, we need to abandon the delusional belief – still clung on to by too many people – that all we need is a little more goodwill and mutual understanding; the “just one more negotiation” approach.
Sticking plaster
But another sticking plaster deal will end up like all the others.With each new failure the level of hostility and poison injected into the body politic just increases. Voluntary coalition is not going to happen, because neither the DUP nor Sinn Féin will give it the nod of approval. Long-term direct rule is not an option because the British and Irish governments, singly or together, do not want responsibility for running the place; they have too many other problems to deal with. There has been talk of a citizens’ assembly, but that is just nonsense peddled by political fringes who have failed to win a mandate by the usual route. Some look to an “outsider” to mediate and knock heads; but that would require a psychiatrist specialising in multiple-personality disorder, rather than an ageing has-been from the US.
The British and Irish governments fear that the collapse of the political/institutional process would make a post-Brexit Border solution much more difficult to achieve, so they seem determined to secure a deal based solely on prioritising the Border in the run-up to March 2019. But they would be making a huge mistake in believing such a deal would, necessarily, shore up the Good Friday agreement or make the constitutional question disappear. It would not.
We must look beyond the Good Friday and St Andrews agreements, both of which have been tested to the point of near destruction. There is no point whatsoever in tinkering around the edges and pretending some sort of political alchemy will nudge the parties into a deal that any of them take seriously. The parties need to – as do the governments – face up to the reality that the problems in the North cannot be resolved by rebooting an inherently wonky Assembly – be it based on either mandatory coalition or voluntary coalition.
Last rites
My view is that the Assembly should be closed and the last rites performed over Good Friday and St Andrews. It was worth exploring those particular avenues and opportunities; but it is time to switch off the life support. It’s a brutal conclusion, I know: but sometimes it is easier to solve a problem by first acknowledging brutal realities; then abandoning all previous failed approaches; and, finally, beginning again from scratch. Unionism and republicanism can never be forced to reconcile. Let’s stop pretending they can be.
Is there an alternative? Possibly. Leave it to the parties/people themselves. Let them organise their own negotiations and political vehicles (allow new parties to emerge, too) and produce their own deal – however long it takes. If they reach a deal then the two governments can provide the necessary legislation and funding. If not, then leave it to the governments to cut their own deal. The local parties have been pampered and indulged for far too long.
Alex Kane is a commentator based in Belfast. He was formerly director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party