An albatross around the Taoiseach's neck has been the doubt that has surrounded his possible reaction to finding himself, after the next election, in a situation in which he could be re-elected by the Dáil to his present office - but only with the votes of a probably enlarged Sinn Féin Dáil party. Last Sunday Mr Ahern attempted a Houdini act to escape from the danger posed to him by public fears about this issue. I have been most interested to observe how the media have reacted to his carefully worded statement on this issue, writes Garret FitzGerald.
The Sunday Independent said that "Mr Ahern can now be satisfied that he has removed a central plank of Mr McDowell's election strategy, in effect, that a vote for Fianna Fáil could lead to Sinn Féin achieving power in government". And The Irish Times report on Monday said that "his comments neutralise a key election argument of the potential alternative government, which was preparing to argue that a vote for Fianna Fáil could put Sinn Féin into government".
The Irish Times also went on to quote a "spokeswoman for the Taoiseach" as saying that Mr Ahern was not only ruling out coalition with Sinn Féin, or relying on their support for a minority Fianna Fáil-led government. He was also ruling out even a scenario in which the abstention of Sinn Féin TDs in a Dáil vote was needed to ensure Mr Ahern's re-election as Taoiseach.
But that, of course, was not what had been said to the Sunday Independent by "the best, the most skilful, the most devious and the most cunning of them all" - to quote Charles Haughey's description of Mr Ahern just after our present Taoiseach had negotiated the 1989 coalition deal with the PDs.
In fact the actual words of the Taoiseach's statement to the Sunday Independent were most skilfully constructed so as to avoid the real issue that could arise after the next election: "A practical republican programme, delivering real benefits to ordinary people, would be impossible with Sinn Féin in government. In such circumstances I would lead my party into Opposition rather than contemplate coalition with Sinn Féin, or an arrangement [ my italics], for their support in government".
But a coalition with Sinn Féin after the next election has, in my view, always been a non-starter - as also, I believe, has been "an arrangement for their support in government".
What needs to be made clear is that when the Dáil meets after the next election, the first business following the election of a Ceann Comhairle will not be the announcement of a government - as many seem to believe - but rather a simple motion for the re-election of the outgoing Taoiseach, which, if it should fail, will be followed by the nomination of another candidate for this office from the Opposition benches.
In this initial vote the Fianna Fáil TDs will, of course, vote for Mr Ahern, as also may several Independents. (In 2002 five Independents did so.) If the number of elected Sinn Féin TDs were to be such as to be capable of bringing the number of votes in support of Mr Ahern up to 83 or more, the Progressive Democrats would then be unlikely to vote for him, lest their votes install a government that would be dependent for its survival on Sinn Féin support.
The key question which the Taoiseach has been most careful not to address, and which curiously the media have not so far raised, is what action the Taoiseach would take if he were to be elected Taoiseach, not of a Fianna Fáil/Sinn Féin coalition, nor as a result of any "arrangement" with Sinn Féin, but nevertheless by Sinn Féin votes, thus leaving him dependent for the survival of his government on the support of that party. Would he accept the nomination, creating an administration vulnerable to Sinn Féin pressure, or would he instantly resign the post to which he would have just been elected?
Without ever directly addressing this question, which is the only real issue, his spokeswoman has sought to imply that Mr Ahern would reject his election as Taoiseach with Sinn Féin support - but, of course, in his carefully drafted public statement, the Taoiseach himself did not say that, or anything like that.
In these circumstances it is scarcely surprising that Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has, on the grounds of the "Taoiseach's track record, expressed scepticism about his statement", or that Mr Ahern's own Minister for Justice, Michael McDowell, pointedly responded by declaring that "no matter what is said, Sinn Féin's plan is to get the balance of power and to use it to control the next government. And if they have the votes they will do it. Their ambition is power."
Last July I published in Village magazine a detailed analysis of possible constituency results in the next general election, in the light of last year's local election results and subsequent public opinion polls. This projection was accepted by a number of politicians and journalists as a reasonable "mid-point" in the range of possible outcomes of that forthcoming contest.
Now, these figures showed a strong possibility that Sinn Féin (which I credited with nine seats - a gain of only four on their present Dáil strength) would hold the balance of power after that election, with the remaining TDs more or less equally balanced between supporters and opponents of Mr Ahern in the vote for the office of Taoiseach. The scenario set out above of Sinn Féin voting for Mr Ahern without any "arrangement" between that party and Fianna Fáil thus represents a very real possibility.
The question to which the electorate - and, as time passes, no doubt the media also - will demand an answer is what would the Taoiseach do, if he were to be faced with that situation - never mind the fictional alternatives of a Fianna Fáil/Sinn Féin coalition, or a highly improbable (because potentially damaging to both) public "arrangement" between these two parties. On his answer to, or failure to answer, this question may depend a lot of votes in the next election.