The people of Northern Ireland chose the path of reconciliation and dialogue, rather than confrontation and retrenchment, when they endorsed the Belfast Agreement last month. And while the Assembly elections have shown some variations in terms of party support, the underlying message is still strongly in favour of peace and accommodation. Seventy-one per cent of the electorate voted Yes in the referendum; last Thursday, a slightly larger proportion of the electorate voted for those parties committed to the Agreement. A more difficult and dangerous journey may lie ahead because of the fall in the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) vote and the advances made by the dissident unionists and the UK Unionist Party. But if the potential of a peaceful Northern Ireland is to be realised, this is the road that must be traversed.
The first preference votes show a society in flux, where traditional political allegiances are being eroded. Sharp divisions within the UUP over support for the Agreement has cost it votes. Mr David Trimble had a disappointing election, and the UUP share of the vote contracted by three points from the 24.2 per cent secured in the Forum elections of 1996. But the Democratic Unionist Party, under Dr Ian Paisley also witnessed a decline in its share of the vote from 18.8 per cent at the Forum elections.
Ground lost by the UUP went to disaffected unionists. The UK Unionist Party, under Mr Bob McCartney, also increased its support to 4.5 per cent. The loyalist parties - the Progressive Unionist Party and the Ulster Democratic Party - lost some ground since the Forum elections, but the vote for the Women's Coalition appeared to hold up. One of the more striking features of the election was the failure of a large number of people, particularly in middle-class, unionist areas, to come out and vote. The party which can claim to be the main architect of the Belfast Agreement, the SDLP, received recognition of that contribution when its vote increased to almost 22 per cent, slightly above the Forum election result. At the same time, Sinn Fein increased its support level by two points to 17.7 per cent and is still challenging the older party for supremacy within the nationalist community. Nationalists, in fact, turned out to vote in large numbers. It must be emphasised that first preference votes do not, in six-seater constituencies under the PR system, translate into an equal proportion of Assembly seats. The elimination of dissident unionist candidates and the transfer of preference votes between the UUP, the SDLP and the Alliance Party should allow those parties, in particular, to secure a bonus in the number of seats gained when the final votes are counted later today. Only then, will the leaders be able to sit down and plan their strategies and tactics for the new Assembly. On the basis of predictions, however, it would seem that Dr Paisley and like-minded wreckers will not secure a sufficient number of seats to prevent the Belfast Agreement being implemented.
Before the election, Mr Trimble asked for support in the honourable task of creating a society where unionism and nationalism could live side by side in peace and freedom. And Mr Hume spoke of leaving the past behind and creating a new situation where both sections of the population would work together. They were compelling calls to a splendid new adventure. When the counting finishes today, Northern Ireland can embark upon it.