The Fine Gael leader, Mr Kenny, will open a two-day meeting of his parliamentary party in Kilkenny today celebrating recent successes in the local and European elections and preparing the ground for a challenge to the authority and effectiveness of the Coalition Government.
One of the first tasks of the conference will be to welcome as a new member the former Independent Wexford TD, Dr Liam Twomey. The party is on a roll. The decision by Dr Twomey to join Fine Gael reflects a new perception of its potential following better-than-expected results in the recent elections.
Fine Gael has emerged as the undisputed leader of any alternative government involving the Labour Party and the Green Party. Should last June's voting patterns be replicated in general election results, the government parties could lose up to 20 Dáil seats with Fine Gael becoming the main beneficiary. The drubbing suffered by Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats brought about an intensive re-examination of Government policies during the summer months and the opposition parties can expect a significant change in both emphasis and personnel when the new Cabinet is appointed on September 29th. Following that development, Mr Kenny may reappoint former leader, Mr Michael Noonan, to the front bench and reallocate other portfolios in an effort to blunt the impact of the Taoiseach's Cabinet reshuffle.
The Labour Party - and to a lesser extent the Green Party - is in some disarray following a succession of tactical misjudgments. Mr Pat Rabbitte antagonised some traditional party members when, without consultation, he joined Mr Kenny in Mullingar some weeks ago and announced a decision to negotiate a pre-election pact. And, whatever understandings may have been reached in discussions earlier this year, a decision to deny Mr Michael D Higgins an opportunity to challenge for the presidency, while being prepared to facilitate the candidacy of Mr Eamon Ryan of the Green Party, went down badly with many Labour supporters.
In much the same way, the Green Party lost face with the electorate when, after making the running on the presidential issue for days, it finally decided against a contest. These are relatively minor matters but they reflect tensions and uncertainties that could generate serious problems in the future. The Labour Party failed to make the kind of gains it expected in the June elections and, as a consequence, the leadership has come under scrutiny. The Green Party also had mixed fortunes, losing its two European Parliament seats but doubling its local authority representation.
The lack of clarity and strategic planning within the two parties has raised questions about their capacity to operate effectively in government. In contrast, Fine Gael has not put a foot wrong. These are early days, however, and with a general election about two years away, there is plenty of time for the smaller parties to address such issues.