The people have spoken and shaken up the system. In the first electoral test since the controversial nomination of Mr Hugh O'Flaherty to the European Investment Bank, Fianna Fail has been hammered by the voters of South Tipperary. Fine Gael has performed extraordinarily well. A striking blow has been dealt to the Labour Party's hopes of regaining, never mind retaining, its traditional seat. A new Independent TD has been elected to the Dail.
The harshest verdict of the voters was delivered on Fianna Fail. The party has witnessed a 14.5 percentage point cent drop in its vote since it came to office three years ago. If yesterday's result was replicated in the 40 other constituencies in a general election, Fianna Fail would be smaller than Fine Gael is today. Their standard-bearer, Mr Barry O'Brien, suffered the ignominy of being the first Fianna Fail candidate to be eliminated in a by-election in living memory. In a strange co-incidence the drop in the Fianna Fail vote matched exactly the gains by the winner. The Fine Gael leader, in contrast, can be well pleased with the party's performance in the by-election. Its candidate won the second highest number of first preferences votes on the day, representing an increase of 2.6 percentage points in the party's share since the last general election. Senator Tom Hayes won 1,225 more first preference votes than Fianna Fail and, in coming second to the poll-topper, was only only 1,235 behind. The result solidifies Mr John Bruton in the leadership of Fine Gael until the next election.
The Labour Party fared badly in a by-election where it had been the holder of the seat. Mrs Ellen Ferris got a marginally higher percentage share of the vote than her late husband in 1997 but more than 500 less first preferences. The mitigating factor in Labour's case was the strength of the alternative Left candidate in Clonmel, a former Labour member.
The winner on all fronts in Tipperary South was the Independent candidate, Mr Seamus Healy. He caused the first surprise by topping the poll. He managed to stay ahead of his nearest rival in all three counts. Mr Healy, who has contested all elections since 1985, fought the election on an unemployed action group platform. He made the valid case that the Celtic Tiger has by-passed the towns of Carrick-on-Suir and Tipperary while the capital, Clonmel, has prospered. He, more than any candidate from the establishment parties, also capitalised on the issue of political corruption. He is the new radical voice of Tipperary South in the Dail.
The results of the Tipperary South by-election mark a seismic shift in voting patterns in one of the most traditional constituencies in the State. They send a clear message to Fianna Fail as the main party in Government. The by-election was fought against the backdrop of the nomination of Mr O'Flaherty to be vice-president of the EIB. The issue was big on the doorsteps during the campaign. The voters in one of the 41 constituencies have had the opportunity to deliver their views on the matter. The Taoiseach opined yesterday that "it is obvious that recent events had a significant impact on the result". The collapse of the Fianna Fail vote in a traditional constituency send a strong signal to the Taoiseach - and the Tanaiste - that it is the wish of the people to have the nomination withdrawn.