THE LOWRY affair is perhaps the most revealing episode in Irish political affairs for many years. It is not so much because of the explicit and implicit questions it raises about double standards, but because of all it can teach us about the state of the Irish political process. The first and most important lesson is that there is no political process worth talking about. The Irish political process is a sham - a massive charade designed to create the illusion of democracy.
You will, I suppose, think I am referring to the invisible influence of people like Ben Dunne. Not really. Ben Dunne and his like are small fry, relatively speaking. The influence they gain over our political system is undoubtedly much more real than politicians would have us believe, but it is microscopic by comparison with the kind of manipulation which this crisis has rendered almost visible. What we have seen over the past month should fill us with anger, perhaps even fear. The fact that it has not done so is a measure of the enormity of the forces which are really in control.
The important elements in this narrative are those since Sam Smyth's article appeared in the Irish Independent rather than those events of 1993 and 1994 which gave rise to the story. What should interest us is the way this story has been absorbed into the public consciousness, the nature of the meanings with which it has been issued in the political arena. I have touched on this subject previously in columns which tried to show that this and other scandals involving Fine Gael, Labour or Democratic Left personnel are treated differently to scandals involving Fianna Fail.
I promise not to go on about this any more. Between me, you and the wall, I couldn't care less if Fianna Fail never get to see the inside of Government Buildings for the next 100 years. What I am interested in is describing what is happening, and why, and how this differs from what we are led to believe.
Here is how we think the system works. We, the electorate, acting individually and collectively, choose our government from a selection of political parties of varying outlooks and philosophies. Over the term of the government, the media keep us informed about the extent to which our wishes are being met.
Here is what actually happens. A relatively small number of people decide how the government is to be composed and what policies it should pursue. I'm not talking smoke filled rooms. I'm not talking dropsies - small beer, as I say. I'm talking, first of all, about the fraction of the electorate which, by virtue of its volatility, has acquired a power which the majority, by virtue of what is termed political "loyalty", has handed over. But, more than that, I'm talking about the even smaller minority which, observing this process, has learned how to gain virtual control overwhat passes the political process by speaking exclusively to and for this larger minority.
This clique includes business people, but they do not exert influence by means of crude devices like brown paper bags. (We can be sure that the role of the dropsy in Irish politics would not be made public except that it has outlived its usefulness.) In the main, this controlling clique is made up of opinion formers, lobbyists, political apparatchiks, academics and what are ironically termed public servants.
THIS controlling clique has no need to soil its hands with used banknotes, for it is in possession of the ultimate political weapon the control of meaning. Imagine, for a moment, that a group of people seeking to dominate the tourist industry acquire the power to influence the weather, to decide when it will rain, shine, snow or blow. Imagine, too, the consequences of this, not just for the people in question, but for others seeking to make a living in the same sector. This is what has happened in Irish politics.
Very few events in Irish political life today are random or accidental. Almost everything has a purpose and that purpose invariably has to do with creating an appropriate set of meanings with a view to obtaining a desired outcome at some future point.
I have been somewhat over zealous in drawing attention to the way this process militates against Fianna Fail. I have been mixing up my chickens and my eggs. It is true that the clique in question does not have much time for Fianna Fail, but that may just be a temporary distaste. Fianna Fail will very quickly learn the appropriate lessons. The important point is that in the future, no party or parties will ascend to governmental office simply because the electorate desires them so to do. Elections are but a device by which the process I am describing is concealed and validated.
The clues, as I say, are to be seen in the weeks since the Lowry story began to break. It should be remembered that this Government, although never actually voted in by the people, has the full approval of the controlling clique. It is this, rather than any matter of policy or performance, that marks it apart from its predecessor.
While the Fianna Fail Labour coalition was disapproved of from the outset, the rainbow was blessed from the word go. Thus from November 1992 onwards, some kind of scandal was necessary and inevitable to bring that Government to its knees. For two years, they watched and waited, until Brendan Smyth arrived like manna from hell. It is a tribute to Fianna Fail's programme of self improvement that it took a full two years for an appropriate pretext to present itself.
CONTRAST this with the past 12 months of the rainbow coalition during which there were at least half a dozen incidents which would have provoked the fall of the Government if this had been desired. The controlling clique did not wish the Government to fall, so the Government did not fall. On the basis of major breaches under the headings of transparency, accountability and ethics, if the controlling clique had so desired, there might have been up to six general elections since this time last year.
To understand this process fully, you need just reflect on the nature of the fall out from the Lowry affair and the extent to which it might have been different if different results had been required. Read through the newspapers for the week or two after Sam Smyth's story and note the reluctance to judge Mr Lowry, or even to rush him. Dip into the work of some of our leading political commentators and note how suddenly their copy is alive with previously unsuspected levels of compassion.
Compare this with their attitude to previous Fianna Fail defendants. Admire their freedom from the tyranny of consistency as they congratulate Bertie Ahern on the restraint he has shown in not going for the Government's jugular. Be touched by their assertions that Mr Lowry has suffered enough.
On the basis of all this, I would like to make a seasonal prediction. Since nobody with any significant power over meaning in Irish politics wishes this Government any harm, there is now every chance that the same combination of parties will be elected to government at the general election to be held later this year.