The outlook for the Government parties is beginning to seem ominous after less than a year in office. This is despite the fact that they won a confidence vote in the Dáil this week by a whopping margin.
After an unremarkable budget and disastrous presidential election campaigns by both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael the two parties are already in a dangerous place. Facing a united Sinn Féin-led bloc in the Dáil they have some serious self-analysis to undertake even to get to the end of their current term.
Yet in the Dáil on Wednesday, when forced into a motion of confidence in Tánaiste Simon Harris, the Coalition won by 94 votes to 65, a large margin by normal standards. It was a sign that the united left won’t necessarily have it all its own way if the Government parties can get their act together.
The surprising thing about the confidence motion was that it was not just the declared Government supporting Independents who backed Harris but a range of others, including the four Independent Ireland TDs. A similar result is likely next week if there is a vote of confidence in the Government as a whole, as threatened by Peadar Tóibín.
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That doesn’t negate the fact that the Government parties need to face up to some home truths, if they are to have any chance of dealing with the challenges facing the country and convincing the public that they are actually doing a good job.
The paradox here is that this country has never been better off. Thanks to the policies pursued by successive governments involving Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael over recent decades, and the prudent management of the public purse by Paschal Donohoe, the country’s finances are in a healthy state.
What Harris and Martin have on their side is time
In the run up to this month’s budget a variety of commentators urged Donohoe to rein in public spending and end the once off payments that were introduced to help people through the Covid pandemic and the subsequent cost of living crisis.
When Donohoe did precisely that he was assailed by some of the very same commentators for not coming up with tax cuts or other spending schemes to cater for all the worthy and unworthy demands made on him in advance of the budget.
What his broadly neutral budget did was to maintain the current high level of social spending while trying to wean the State off its dependence on potentially volatile corporation tax receipts, which could take an enormous hit if Donald Trump reverts to tariff warfare.
The tottering governments of France and Britain are dealing with acute strains in the public finances and falling living standards. These were the kind of problems that bedevilled this State for the first 70 years of its existence and thankfully have been kept at bay in the 21st century in spite of the financial crisis blip.
So what do the Coalition parties have to do to generate public confidence? As usual in politics, the initial focus is on leadership. There is fevered speculation over Micheál Martin’s future following the botched Jim Gavin campaign and serious questions for Simon Harris over the truly woeful campaign Fine Gael have waged on behalf of Heather Humphreys.
Martin has now been Fianna Fáil leader for almost 15 years and in that time has brought his party back from the brink of extinction to being the biggest party in the Dáil, as well bringing it back to its traditional place in Government. While there is speculation that he might take a leaf out of Leo Varadkar’s book and quit before the end of his term as Taoiseach, there is nothing to suggest that he will adopt that course.
If he had been contemplating stepping down at any stage during his current term, he could have run for the presidency and most likely would have been a shoe-in. The fact that he didn’t may suggest that he wants to serve out his full term and lead the party into the next election.
His handling of the internal criticism that erupted after Gavin’s withdrawal from the election contest also showed that he has not lost his ability to control his party. He is still the best asset Fianna Fáil has, and his TDs know that.
Harris also faces questions from his internal critics. From the beginning of the presidential campaign, voters have been commenting on the dearth of posters all around the country. If the party couldn’t fix such a simple thing, is it capable of waging any kind of serious election campaign?
What Harris and Martin have on their side is time. If they have the courage to implement the radical proposals expected from the taskforce on infrastructure next month it would be a big step towards convincing voters that they have the capacity to deal with the problem.
If they shirk it, then they really are doomed.
