No matter how much it protests that no decisions have been made, it’s hard to see how Fianna Fáil can really just sit out October’s presidential election.
True, the party hasn’t contested an election since 1997, when Mary McAleese snatched the nomination from Albert Reynolds and went on to win a bitterly contested race, subsequently serving two successful terms.
But the reasons the party didn’t contest in 2011 and 2018 – the first because it was in total meltdown after the financial crisis and then because there was a popular incumbent whom it quite liked seeking a second term – don’t apply in 2025.
Micheál Martin, having restored Fianna Fáil from a state of near-death to the largest party in the State and returned to the Taoiseach’s office after last year’s elections, has a credible claim to being the party’s most successful leader since its founder. Running for elections is what successful parties do. Sitting on the sidelines, especially with Fine Gael running in what could turn out to be a restorative election for its leader, would be a peculiar choice and reflect both an insecurity about the future and a paucity of imagination and resources for the present. If Sinn Féin runs its own candidate – undecided, say party sources, but likely I think – it would be even harder for Fianna Fáil to enter a nolle prosequi.
Fianna Fáil is in desperate need of a candidate for the presidential election. Applications are invited
US democracy is in danger, but what about Ireland?
Housing emergency? Ireland is not even acting at the level of mildly urgent
Ireland’s centrist dads (and mums) continue to be the dominant force in our politics
Not that Martin and his allies care all that much for the presidency. They are interested in power and there is little if any power in the Áras. But symbols matter in politics. The election of Michael D Higgins in 2011 didn’t save Labour, some Fianna Fáilers point out. True. But the election of Mary Robinson opened the door to thousands of voters who would give Labour unprecedented political opportunities. More than that, Robinson’s election signalled and was part of opening up what would lead to a different society. It was one of the most consequential elections ever.
The problem, as Martin’s lieutenants have pondered for many months now, is a candidate: they don’t have one.
“Is there a shortlist?” I asked one party panjandrum. “There isn’t even a long list,” he chortled. “Have you any ideas?”
Bertie Ahern spent months publicly offering himself – though less ubiquitously of late, suggesting some private messages of discouragement have been sent. This is probably wise for the party, and for the Bert. If he ran, the campaign would be a nightmare for him, he would have no chance of winning, and he would ultimately regret it.
Offering herself too has been Mary Hanafin, but she has been received with coolness rather than enthusiasm. The truth is that there is an entire generation of Fianna Fáilers whose participation in the economic car-crash of 2008-11 more or less disqualifies them from the prospect of success in an election like this – with the remarkable exception of the leader himself, though he likes being leader and Taoiseach and is not ready for retirement yet.
Barry Andrews, having a keener political eye than he sometimes lets on, has no interest in either running for the job or doing it and while his MEP colleague Cynthia Ní Mhurchú is being what passes in politics for coy on the question, even a barrister’s self-confidence will only get you so far.
“Fianna Fáil will spend the summer going around to the summer schools looking at the various speakers,” laughs one Leinster House insider, a prospect calculated to strike terror into the hearts of those who might be tasked with the job.
There remains at all levels of the party, including the leadership, the idea that a McAleese-type candidate will walk through the door some day soon. And maybe that will happen, but for now it remains wishful thinking, and as time ticks on, the chances are diminishing.
The former SDLP leader Colum Eastwood is offering himself for this role, but Martin appeared to dismiss that prospect when asked about it recently, insisting that there had been no approach from Fianna Fáil to Eastwood and expressing his surprise at the suggestions that there had. “It’s open to everyone to put themselves forward,” he said.
Experts on instant attraction will have noted this is not exactly, “You had me at hello”.
And so the question facing Fianna Fáil, according to several party sources who discussed the issue privately in recent days, may be this: if the party can’t find a candidate that it is enthusiastic about, is it better to run a bad candidate or no candidate at all?
Opinions vary within the party. One TD fears the political impact of coming third or even fourth behind Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and maybe an Independent. But would it be worse than sitting out the contest entirely? I don’t think so.
Another party source looks at it this way: when Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell crashed and burned in the 2011 contest – at a time when the party was by far the dominant player in government and politics – and came fourth behind Higgins, Seán Gallagher and Martin McGuinness, winning only 6 per cent of the vote, did that really have any lasting political impact on Fine Gael? Not really.
“If there isn’t a political penalty for doing badly, then that makes it more likely we run someone,” the source says.
But who? Applications are invited. Knowledge of the political system required; but preferably someone who can be above politics. Who people will admire at home and believe represents them well abroad. A very thorough background check will be required. Deadline for applications: August 31st. Apply: Micheál Martin, Government Buildings, Dublin 2. Canvassing will most certainly not disqualify.
