The idea that reducing immigration is the only way to solve the housing crisis – or more simply that “immigrants are taking our housing” – might seem intuitive in the context of low housing supply and high immigration. It’s also sure to become a more prominent part of our politics over the coming years.
Looking to other countries can give us a sense of what the future might hold. Anti-immigrant parties are part of governments in Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Hungary, not to mention the US. Here in Ireland, while we don’t have a prominent anti-immigrant party, grassroots and online-based groups appear to be growing in size and confidence.
International research on the drivers of anti-immigrant sentiment points to economic grievances. For example, political scientists have found that Trump supporters are much less likely to have a college degree and their jobs are more likely to be threatened by globalisation. But in Ireland, economic inequality has not increased over the last four decades and globalisation has been largely positive for employment and incomes.
The alternative theory of “resource scarcity” is more plausible. The argument here is that immigration can cause demand for services to increase quickly, leading to increased competition. This is especially true for things that take time to deliver, like housing and education. Researchers in Austria found that in areas that rely on social housing, perceived housing competition drives anti-immigrant voting. In the Netherlands, there is evidence that voters become less supportive of immigrants when more social housing in their area is allocated to refugees.
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Although it may be intuitive, the idea that opposition to immigration is driven by this kind of competition doesn’t stack up in the Irish case. True, housing supply has been inadequate for over a decade, and by historic standards immigration is indeed high. In 2023, 22 per cent of the population were born outside the State. Only two other EU countries had a higher level of foreign-born population – Malta and Cyprus – which are of course Mediterranean islands.
The argument that reducing immigration would alleviate the housing crisis therefore appeals to common sense. But what it misses is that it is immigrants themselves who are overwhelmingly the victims of the housing crisis. By any measure, immigrants come out much worse than Irish-born households.
Research from the ESRI shows that while a large majority of Irish-born people own their home (77 per cent), little more than a third of non-Irish born households do (37 per cent). In fact, the proportion of Irish-born households who are homeowners has not changed that much over the last few decades. And while we often hear about a “generation rent” trapped in the private rental sector, in reality almost 60 per cent of immigrants are private renters, compared to just 13.8 per cent of those born here. Only a quarter of Eastern Europeans have got their foot on the property ladder, despite the fact that more than 60 per cent of them have been living in Ireland for more than a decade, and over 80 per cent of Brazilians and Indians are renters. Recent research by DCU’s Valesca Lima also shows that discrimination is a common experience among migrants seeking rental accommodation.
[ Irish Times poll: Housing is main concern for all population groupsOpens in new window ]
Migrants are also less likely to live in social housing. Almost 10 per cent of those born here live in social housing, but only 6 per cent of immigrants do. Many immigrants don’t have a long-term right to reside and aren’t eligible for social housing – and because access to social housing is based on a waiting list, it doesn’t favour newcomers.
When it comes to housing affordability the picture is much the same. More than one in three migrants spend more than 30 per cent of their income on housing costs, but less than one in 10 Irish-born residents do. This is because the vast majority of Irish-born households are homeowners (and around half of those have no mortgage on their house) and because they are more likely to be in social housing, where rents are very affordable.
Finally, non-Irish nationals accounted for 46 per cent of single adult homeless presentations and 44 per cent of families in emergency accommodation in 2019.
In short, all of the main issues associated with the housing crisis (inability to purchase, affordability, homelessness) are disproportionately experienced by immigrants. This is despite the fact that, on average, immigrants have higher levels of employment and education.
The facts don’t support the idea that migrants are outcompeting Irish-born households when it comes to housing. In fact, it would be more accurate to say that immigrants are largely competing among themselves to rent overpriced housing from landlords who are overwhelmingly Irish. The idea that “immigrants are taking our houses” twists the facts to project anger on to those most impacted by high rents and homelessness.
It’s worth noting that a lot of anti-immigrant activism has focused on the groups of immigrants who are least likely to be driving up house prices and rents, or taking social housing. For those concerned with access to homeownership, it makes more sense to focus on immigration from the UK, the only group of immigrants who have high levels of homeownership. If the issue is high rents, the more likely culprits are Swedish software programmers in the Docklands and not International Protection Applicants who are, in some instances, literally living in tents.
This doesn’t mean there is no possible case for reducing immigration. But it does mean that simplistically pitting natives against immigrants doesn’t help us understand what is happening with Irish housing. And it obscures an issue that should be a major policy concern: making our housing system fairer for everyone who lives and works here.
Dr Michael Byrne is a lecturer at UCD and director of the Equality Studies MSc. He writes a weekly newsletter about Irish housing: https://theweekinhousing.substack.com/
