Tánaiste Simon Harris has ended speculation that a single Government candidate will be fielded in this autumn’s presidential election. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will each contest the election separately with their own candidates, he has said in interviews.
Meanwhile, Sinn Féin, Labour, the Social Democrats and People Before Profit have held recent talks to explore the possibility of fielding a united left candidate. As the largest party within this grouping, Sinn Féin’s decision will have a considerable impact on whether this ever gets beyond talks, as well as how the presidential campaign unfolds.
In a press conference at Stormont last week, Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald told reporters: “On the presidential election, we’ve just commenced really our discussions around what we might do. We’re speaking with others, other parties, and there are options available to us – to run a Sinn Féin candidate, to back another – and we haven’t concluded on that.”
There is good reason for her reluctance to be drawn on an issue that is becoming increasingly fraught within the party. The presidential election presents a unique dilemma and is the source of intense internal debate, with figures within the party split on whether to contest the election at all. Put bluntly, presidential elections tend not to go very well for Sinn Féin. Party strategists expect any candidate put forward by the party to perform poorly. In the 2018 election, candidate Liadh Ní Riada received just 6.4 per cent of the vote, despite Sinn Féin polling around 14 per cent across the Republic at the time.
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This is because the dynamic of presidential elections is drastically different from other elections in the Irish electoral calendar. Due to the largely ceremonial nature of the role, the campaign tends to coalesce around candidates’ personalities, leadership style and history of public service. Sinn Féin struggles in this context, much preferring the more familiar ground of issues-based campaigning on matters such as housing or water charges, rather than personality-based campaigning. Many voters in the Republic continue to view Sinn Féin as extreme and untested in high office, meaning they are wary about the idea of a potential maverick in the Áras.
Despite media speculation that former Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams could be a potential candidate, this is not a serious prospect. Adams continues to be a deeply polarising figure nationally and a reminder of the party’s historic controversies that strategists would have no desire to revisit.
By contrast, Michelle O’Neill would fit much of the party’s criteria for a presidential candidate. After making history as the first republican to hold office as First Minister, she has a national profile. Her time at the helm of Stormont has been presidential in style; characterised by inclusive leadership and ceremonial gestures, including attending the coronation of Britain’s King Charles and developing a close working relationship with the DUP. However, a tilt at the Áras could leave O’Neill vulnerable to potential attacks from political rivals in the North – including the accusation that she is not fully committed to the role at Stormont that she worked so hard to achieve.
Because Sinn Féin has had so many disappointing elections in the South recently – including the local, European and general elections in 2024 – there is concern among some that McDonald’s political capital is increasingly fragile. Those who hold this view believe that it would be further strained if she were to oversee yet another poor election result for the party. If a Sinn Féin candidate flops this autumn, it will be increasingly difficult to avoid the sense that Sinn Féin is on a downward trajectory and is continuing to fail to convert public support into electoral success.
As a result, the idea of sitting out this election and instead backing a united left candidate is increasingly tempting to some in the party. They argue that this would enable Sinn Féin to contest the election at arm’s length, while retaining plausible deniability down the road, in the event there is a need to distance themselves from a candidate’s lacklustre result. To that end, Independent Senator Frances Black or Independent TD Catherine Connolly would be appealing potential candidates. Other possible avenues could include a figure from civic life in the North, such as an activist or sports figure.
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However, this approach poses its own dilemma. If Sinn Féin decides not to field a candidate in the election, the party risks losing its distinct identity and becoming overly associated with broader left-wing parties, part of an interchangeable mass. While the optics of a united opposition on display in the Dáil during the recent speaking-rights row may shore up transfers from the Social Democrats, Labour and People Before Profit voters at the next general election, the displays of unity are causing unease for some within the party. They fear that this association ultimately runs the risk of alienating Sinn Féin’s own voting base who might interpret the party as increasingly less radical and failing to convey a unique offering.
Many insiders also share the view that it simply isn’t credible for the party to continue to style itself as a plausible alternative to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael while sitting out this significant national conversation about Ireland’s future. Failing to run their own candidate would also mean relinquishing opportunities for high profile media coverage for much of this summer and autumn for the duration of the presidential campaign.
As the party’s leadership and strategists mull over the decision, they do so against a backdrop of considerable pressure. There is a drumbeat of unease over the recent track record of decisions taken around elections in the South. Repeated missteps in recent years have included running far too few candidates in the 2020 general election, and then far too many in 2024. Meanwhile, Sinn Féin ill-fated decision to back a Yes/Yes vote in the 2024 referendums on family and care has since been described by McDonald as a “mistake”. Party activists will be hoping the 2025 presidential election will not be another botched election to add to this growing list.
Siobhán Fenton is a writer living in Belfast. She was a senior communications adviser to Sinn Féin in the last Dáil term, including as the party’s deputy head of press in the Oireachtas from 2022-2024
