At 1,670 days, Darragh O’Brien was the sixth-longest serving minister with responsibility for housing since 1919. This is still only half as long as Neil Blaney, with his record-breaking nine years from November 1957 to November 1966. The shortest-serving housing minister is Éamon O’Cuiv, at 39 days, and his grandfather, Éamon de Valera, who held the position – albeit as acting minister – for just three days in August 1941.
New minister James Browne inherits a challenging brief – on the one hand trying to meet the needs of society, and on the other grappling with the demands of a development industry that always wants more. And yet it is into developers’ baskets successive recent ministers have placed most of their eggs, at substantial taxpayer expense. This is an essentially contradictory exercise, so we end up with a very mixed bag of results.
Under O’Brien, housing output increased by almost 60 per cent, the number of apartments built went up 148 per cent, social housing output increased by three-quarters, the social housing waiting list reduced by 5 per cent, the volume of market transactions went up by a third, and the total number of first-time buyers rose by 39 per cent. At the same time, the percentage of new housing available for sale fell 10-20 per cent, house prices and rents are up 27 and 28 per cent respectively, child homelessness has nearly doubled as the housing budget increased 243 per cent, and home-ownership declined to 65.7 per cent, now languishing well below the European average. Housing completions were also down to just 30,330 in 2024, despite vehement assurances during the election from Simon Harris and O’Brien that completions would be – one, two, skip a few – 40,000 or more.
Last November, housing and homelessness was the most important issue for voters followed by the cost of living. Despite this, the current Government parties wooed the section of the electorate that has the least housing discomfort – the older, often mortgage-free home-owner. More than half of those who voted Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were over 50 years of age.
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Looking at voters more likely to have housing challenges, about a quarter of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil voters respectively were under 35. For Sinn Féin, this was two-thirds. More than a quarter of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil voters were over 65, twice that of Sinn Féin. This means in the not-too-distant future a significant swathe of Government party voters will have one eye on the funeral home rather than their first home, and vice versa for Sinn Féin and some other Opposition parties.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s cumulative and relatively benign housing pitches obviously resonated with these older, comfortable, homeowning voters. As UCD’s Mick Byrne wrote, while the left promised to support access to homes, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael promised them assets. It seems everybody wants affordable homes, but nobody wants cheap homes.
The aspiration for owning a home should signal to the Government that its housing policies, which have consistently undermined home-ownership, are a resentment-brewing, strategic and financial, mistake. Over four in 10 full-time employed adults under 35 in Ireland live with their parents, which is considerably above the EU average. First-time buyers are now aged 36 on average, compared with 29 in 2007.
Socio-economic inequality is one outcome of poor housing policy. Access to home-ownership is a big determinant of future wealth, creating a societal divide between haves versus have-nots: Irish homeowners are 60 times wealthier than renters. This wealth inequality persists as it is handed down across generations – what has been called rich daddy syndrome. A third of first-time buyers receive help from their homeowning parents, so it feels like the system perpetuates privilege and politics perpetuates the system. There is nothing like division to unite people.
Less privileged voters traditionally found a political home with parties of the left, but as developed countries move from producing goods to managing money those who still have jobs producing things feel increasingly disconnected. At the same time, parties of the left and centre left have shifted to varying degrees from representing the working and lower-middle classes to the professional-managerial classes.
The UK Labour Party, led by barrister and “son of a toolmaker” Keir Starmer, exemplifies this transition since the early 1990s, and is now trying to entice back its working-class voters. In Ireland, four of the six leaders of parties of the left went to Trinity College Dublin; three studied law; one has a PhD; and one is a professor. Voters for these parties are also increasingly educated and middle class. The wealthy, though, nearly always vote right.
If the Government parties are looking after the wealthy homeowners, and support for the left is dominated by professional-managerials, who represents low-paid workers doing essential jobs? Who helps them when they can’t afford to house themselves? The primary borrower in 95 per cent of first-time buyer mortgage lending in 2024 were salaried employees, so what of the self-employed or those on low-paid contracts? Where are the housing disenfranchised turning for political representation?
[ Eoin Ó Broin: New government is destined to repeat housing mistakes of the pastOpens in new window ]
Sinn Féin already has significant support among renters and council house dwellers. Independents recently won 17 seats.
There is a question over whether the Opposition can win over those struggling to access housing they can afford. If they don’t, we may see the emergence of a version of the UK’s Reform Party tapping into a heady mix of political hubris and societal resentment, siphoning frustrated voters from all quarters.
The generational divide in politics revolves mostly around housing, which is an opportunity for the Opposition, if they can reconnect with their traditional voter base, and a headache for the Government parties if they can’t find new voters. In the meantime, the political hustle of continuous Coalition becomes a benign dictatorship where performative angst over poor housing outcomes is the norm.
Reducing dereliction, increasing housing output, ensuring affordability, equalising the unequal, foiling the rise of the right, holding the centre, saving the mainstream parties: there is much more than better housing outcomes resting in the portfolio of housing minister James Browne.
Dr Lorcan Sirr is senior lecturer in housing at Technological University Dublin
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