Gérard Araud, who served as France’s ambassador to Washington from 2014 until 2019, is a leading expert on US politics. Since his retirement, Araud, age 71, has published five books on diplomacy, the United States and Israel.
His brash, often cynical and witty pronouncements have made him a well-known figure on radio and television. He travelled to Washington to cover Donald Trump’s second inauguration for the news channel LCI. On the night of Trump’s first election in 2016, Araud famously tweeted, “World collapsing before our eyes. Vertigo.”
Trump world was outraged. Araud erased the post, but it was not forgotten. He nonetheless cultivated contacts in Trump’s entourage. First son-in-law Jared Kushner invited him to Trump Tower. Stephen Miller, Trump’s anti-immigrant ideologue, told Araud he admires the far-right French writer Charles Maurras.
In his 2019 book Diplomatic Passport, Araud wrote that Trump is afflicted with “pathological narcissism”. Speaking to members of the elite Cercle Interallié a few nights ago, Araud said Trump “has no superego”, the Freudian term for the self-critical part of the brain.
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As if to confirm Araud’s diagnosis, Trump this week made his most outrageous proposal ever: that the US should expel two million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip – a war crime under the Geneva conventions – seize the “demolition site” and turn it into “the Riviera of the Middle East”.
[ From the archive: Gérard Araud: ‘Social democracy is in a coma in Europe’Opens in new window ]
Trump is “viscerally against” costly US foreign military interventions, but uses the threat of force to intimidate adversaries and allies alike. “The idea of fighting for democracy is completely alien to him,” Araud says. “America first means America alone.”
Trump “doesn’t know what the European Union is, but he hates it,” Araud continues. “He wants to deal with countries individually.” He predicts Trump will force the EU to rescind the Digital Services Act, intended to prevent illegal and harmful activities online.
It’s civilisational. Try telling the Poles or the Czechs, ‘Don’t worry. The British and French nuclear forces will protect you’
— Gérard Araud
Regarding Ukraine, Araud says, “Putin may accept negotiations with the idea that he’ll try again in a few years. Or he may calculate that Trump will abandon Ukraine and he can take the whole country.” In any case, the negotiations are likely to take place “over the heads of the Europeans and the Ukrainians”.
Everyone recognises that Ukraine is likely to lose the territory occupied by Russia. “The question is not about territory, but whether there are security guarantees for the four-fifths of Ukraine that are still free,” Araud says. Trump wants the appearance of success but there is a danger that if Trump obtains a ceasefire Putin will nonetheless subjugate Ukraine’s leadership. Araud says he’s certain Europeans “will do nothing”.
Araud does not believe that Trump will pull the US out of Nato. But Article 5, which commits all signatories to come to the aid of a member if it is attacked, “depends on the credibility of the US guarantee”, he notes. “Will the US go to war for Estonia? For Latvia?” Russia may not need to send tanks into Baltic States; their small populations and Russian-speaking minorities could easily be dominated by Russia.
France alone believes in a European defence. The country’s allies cling to “a euro-Atlantic space stretching from Warsaw to Vancouver,” Araud says. “It’s civilisational. Try telling the Poles or the Czechs, ‘Don’t worry. The British and French nuclear forces will protect you’.”
Araud predicts that, contrary to beefing up their own defence industry, France’s European partners “will rush to Washington to buy F-35s [combat aircraft].” He compares the Europeans to Madame du Barry, the last mistress of Louis XV, who was guillotined in 1793 and who, stretched out on the plank said, “Another moment, please, Monsieur Executioner.”
Europe is particularly weak because its three great powers, Britain, France and Germany, are in profound crisis. Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni “is not going to give impetus to the EU”, Araud says, calling Meloni and the Hungarian and Slovakian leaders, Viktor Orban and Robert Fico, “Trump’s Trojan horses”.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Hamas’s October 7th 2023 attacks and Israel’s vengeance have changed the world utterly, Araud says. “Before, leaders pretended to play by the rules. No one respects rules any longer. Now a president can say, ‘I want to take Greenland.’ We are coming out of the 70 happiest years in human history. Our generation knew only peace.”
Israel’s military might is now unchallenged in the Middle East. “Iran is on the ropes. Israel has already destroyed Iranian air defences and Trump has given Israel the two-tonne bombs which Biden held back. I doubt Trump has given Netanyahu the green light to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, but he may let him annex the West Bank.”
[ Palestinians will ‘never give up our land’, says ambassadorOpens in new window ]
The greatest danger, Araud said, is that the Israeli military power which has been unleashed will not stop unless something stops it. Netanyahu says he must destroy Hamas, but Hamas cannot be destroyed completely, so the conflict continues. Netanyahu cannot shift from a military to a political undertaking, because to do so would risk creating the Palestinian state which he and his far-right allies refuse to envision.
Asked by a member of the audience what can be done to mitigate consequences of Trump’s second presidency, Araud concludes: “Pray to St Rita.”
