Tuesday’s election will go down as one of the most consequential in American history. Never before has the US been so close to authoritarianism. A man who has promised to be a dictator on his first day in office and whom his former chief of staff has said fits the “general definition of a fascist” has been returned to the presidency.
For Donald Trump personally, this outcome likely means that all federal charges that have been brought against him related to his interference in the 2020 election and his incitement of the insurrection of January 6th, 2021, will be dropped. Trump will not have the authority to dismiss cases against him in state courts in Georgia and New York. However, it is difficult to see a sitting president being incarcerated, especially one who has a hand-picked US supreme court to back him up. A man who has spent his whole life escaping the consequences of his actions will likely never face justice.
The next four years of a Trump presidency won’t be as bad as the first four. They will be worse. In 2016, Trump didn’t expect to win and had little idea of what to do once he took office. He relied on staff who did not share his aims and often acted to restrain him. Now, he will return to the presidency with loyal staff members who have a clear agenda evident in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 report. This blueprint calls for a radical restructuring of the federal government that includes gutting abortion access, mass deportations, using federal law enforcement to crack down against peaceful protesters and journalists, severely limiting voting access, and censoring free speech in education and the media. Trump has publicly distanced himself from the document, and it is not clear to what degree he wants to implement it. But those who believe in its aims will populate his government and have told us what to expect.
Within the US, the biggest losers on Tuesday night are society’s most vulnerable. Millions of migrants who fled the most desperate circumstances to come to the US will likely now be rounded up and deported. Trans people, who were viciously targeted in Trump’s campaign ads, are in serious danger of losing their rights. Trump’s election reduces the threat of civic violence in the near term since nearly all of Kamala Harris’s supporters – unlike Trump’s – will accept the results of the election and demonstrate peacefully. But it increases the chances of sporadic violence against groups that he and his supporters have hatefully targeted: migrants, including those legally in the US; the LGBTQ+ community; women seeking abortions and doctors providing them; liberal academics, journalists, and politicians; Muslims; Jews; and people of colour. White supremacist militias, who have been among Trump’s earliest and most vociferous supporters, will be emboldened.
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Trump’s victory will fuel the rise of the authoritarian right throughout the world, including in Europe and even in Ireland, where it remains a small but growing threat. Trump is unlikely to continue support for Ukraine, which means that Putin’s war of aggression will likely succeed. While Trump’s first term was relatively quiet in terms of world crises, he comes into office with a dangerously escalating war in the Middle East. Trump’s instincts are isolationist – he generally wants to remove the US from foreign entanglements – but he is also an erratic man with violent inclinations, which makes him unpredictable and very dangerous. Indeed, the biggest concern about a Trump presidency is that he now controls the nuclear codes that can put an abrupt end to our species.
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Trump will likely face few sources of resistance within the federal government. Republicans have won back control of the US Senate and, as of this writing, appear likely to hold the House of Representatives. The right-wing supreme court has already ruled that the US presidency holds authority so sweeping that holders cannot be held accountable for any crimes they commit while in office. Trump will have the chance to enact retribution on his political enemies – as he has repeatedly promised to do.
There will, however, be significant resistance to Trump’s agenda. Despite having won the presidency, he remains an unpopular figure with a majority of Americans. A mass movement against him and his right-wing agenda will emerge. He will face significant institutional resistance from civil society and from state governments under Democratic control such as in California and New York. The US system of federalism gives states significant power and the country is set for the biggest conflict between federal and state power since the civil rights era – if not the Civil War – only this time it is the most progressive forces in society that will push states’ rights.
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For Democrats, this shattering defeat will begin a process of soul-searching. Joe Biden had one job to do – to keep Trump out of office – but he sought a second term when he was no longer fit to do so. As a result, his party never had the open primary that might have produced a better candidate than Harris, or a Harris better prepared to succeed. The Democrats’ centrist strategies have suited party elites and its big donors, but they have been sold to the party’s base as the only way to defeat the right. After losing to Trump once again, that argument is no longer credible. One wonders whether someone from the left wing of the party with a populist agenda that could appeal to working-class voters – such as Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – would have done better. It’s very possible that a left-wing Democrat might win its 2028 presidential primary and we might get a chance find out.
Trump and his agenda could lose popularity quickly. There is excellent reason to believe that an overhauled Democratic Party would be in good position to make significant gains in the 2026 mid-term elections and win back the presidency in four years. Only, given Trump’s authoritarian tendencies, one doubts whether the next US elections will be free and fair.
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