The “reset” both sides are promising in British-Irish relations may be mostly due to a change of government in London, but the importance of change in Dublin should not be overlooked.
Ireland “will always be an ally of Britain having a closer relationship with the European Union”, Simon Harris told Sky News last Sunday.
“It is absolutely in Ireland’s interest that we facilitate that in every way we can around any European table,” the Taoiseach continued, citing a veterinary agreement and “student mobility” as possible deals.
Britain would need an ally in these discussions. Prime minister Keir Starmer wants a veterinary agreement and the EU has previously been amenable, but it has less motivation now the Irish Border issue has been resolved to its satisfaction. On agri-food trade in general, the EU has the best of both words. It operates a full inspection regime for imports from Britain, which is having a protectionist effect, while Britain is struggling to impose controls in the opposite direction.
How to talk about a united Ireland: Say little and set up a committee
The difference between Simon Harris and Leo Varadkar on UK-Irish relations goes beyond tone
Unionism has welcomed Labour’s apparently inevitable win, but nationalists are already milking it
Northerners look on the Republic’s motorways with envy – but tolls are a bridge too far
On free movement for young people, the EU has offered a deal so unattractive Starmer felt compelled to reject it before taking office. The deal would allow EU citizens aged 18 to 30 to work and study in the UK. However, their British counterparts would have to choose one EU member state in which to enjoy the same privileges. Brussels argues this is fair because each member state would only be gaining free movement to one country – cakeist reasoning when the EU otherwise insists on being treated as a bloc. It also wants EU students to pay the same tuition fees as UK ones, as opposed to the higher fees charged to overseas students. Such demands reveal the weakness of the UK’s position.
Harris is not claiming he would take the UK’s side against the EU, of course. Nor is he portraying Ireland as a brick in the impenetrable wall of European solidarity, never to be prised out by British tactics of divide and conquer. The contrast with his predecessor, Leo Varadkar, goes beyond tone. The new Taoiseach also shares Starmer’s position on the prospect of a Border poll. “I just don’t think it arises currently,” he told Sky. “People in Northern Ireland, people in Ireland, people in Britain, I believe, want to see real delivery when it comes to things like public services, their economy, prosperity ... for me, the focus and priority isn’t on a referendum”.
Varadkar made headlines in Belfast last month with an appearance at an Ireland’s Future event, where he said Irish governments should cease treating unification as a “political aspiration” and make it a “political objective”. Asked about this four days later, Harris pointedly said unification was “my political aspiration”.
In an interview just before the Belfast event, Varadkar said he wanted to plan for a united Ireland when he became taoiseach in 2017 and had hoped to set up a New Ireland Forum “similar to what Garret FitzGerald established in the 1980s”. Brexit and a collapse of Stormont meant he was unable to do so.
This adds interesting context to his mindset during Brexit negotiations. Some unionists and Conservatives accused Varadkar of pursuing unification by stealth. Did he consider himself frustrated in that pursuit? Whatever the answer, the context has changed under Harris.
Another change assisting the reset is Sinn Féin’s fading fortune in the Republic. Starmer became Labour leader in April 2020. From that point until last month, he could safely assume that if he made it into Downing Street, Mary Lou McDonald would be his Irish opposite number.
This helps explain why Starmer has taken a firm line on a Border poll over the past four years. In 2021, he said he would campaign for the union if one were held. Last October, he said such a vote was “not even on the horizon”. Hilary Benn, the then shadow northern secretary, hardened the line further, dismissing nationalist calls to specify the criteria for calling a poll. The UK supreme court has ruled the Belfast Agreement purposefully left this as a matter of political judgment.
Starmer and Benn were clearly preparing to deal with a Sinn Féin government demanding dates and criteria for a poll to keep the republican goal on the agenda, rather than in any serious expectation of holding a vote. It was legitimate to head off this mischief but suddenly it no longer seems necessary.
Journalists noted a softer line from Starmer on his visit to Belfast this week. Asked about a Border poll, he intoned Belfast Agreement platitudes, spoke of London being an “honest broker” and declined to repeat he would campaign for the union. This change will be partly due to entering government but perhaps more due to the falling odds of a Sinn Féin-led government. It is just not an aspect of the reset that Starmer can openly admit.