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Michael McDowell: Belarus must pay a heavy price for co-operating with Putin’s war machine

Micheál Martin can take a lead at EU level to make it clear that the Lukashenko regime faces political and economic sanctions

Have you noticed that the number of Ukraine flags and banners around the place has fallen significantly? Dublin City Council has taken down the Ukrainian colours. Public buildings have done likewise. Many private flats and homes have removed them from view.

Did someone in authority in the council decide that the Ukrainian colours it flew along our main thoroughfares should be stowed away. Was that a decision of the council’s elected members or its executive? Did someone in the Oireachtas decide to turn off the blue and yellow floodlighting at Leinster House?

Or is it just coincidence that at the very height of Putin’s war-criminal attacks on the civilian population of Ukraine, the level of publicly-demonstrated support in Ireland should fade like snow on a ditch?

Micheál Martin is now Minister for Foreign Affairs and he has spoken of Ireland’s continuing support for Ukraine. Now is the time for him to demonstrate publicly that our support is not flagging. Difficulties in housing Ukrainian refugees should not blunt our strong support for the Ukrainians – here in Ireland or in their cold and darkened cities.

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President Zelenskiy’s government needs support at every level now more than ever. The Ukrainians are manning the trenches of the frontline between European democracy and tyranny. Russia is planning a renewed onslaught in January and February in which hundreds of thousands of deluded and demoralised conscripts will be thrown by Putin into a massive push to subjugate Kyiv.

The Ukrainian chief of armed forces, Gen Valerii Zaluzhny, has given a clear warning of what is planned for the Russian winter offensive. For the Ukrainians, a ceasefire is not an option. It would only serve to strengthen Russian resolve to renew its offensive next spring.

The West simply has to redouble military support in the form of war materiel and advanced weaponry for the Ukrainian army. The current battle for Bakhmut is turning into a latter-day equivalent of the brutal and prolonged siege of Verdun during the first World War. Wave after wave of Russian conscripts are being dropped into the meatgrinder of trench warfare for a city of little or no strategic importance simply to demonstrate the contempt held by inept and servile Russian generals for human life of every kind – combatants and civilians.

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The plight of Ukrainian civilians is awful. And Putin is attempting to inflict the greatest pain on the weakest to force some form of surrender.

Where Martin can now make a difference is at EU level. He should take the lead in an EU political initiative to bring home to Belarus that any escalation of its land or forces’ involvement in Putin’s genocide will bring down on Belarus the most savage consequences in the form absolute isolation and political and economic sanctions.

I have in mind total travel bans for all citizens, repatriation of nationals, impounding of all Belarusian assets, closure of EU airspace for all flights originating in or operating from Belarus, total closure of borders including for Russian land traffic to and from Kaliningrad, blanket personal sanctions against all senior members of the Belarusian state and military apparatus and their families, a ban on exports to Belarus, cutting off of diplomatic relations, and complete suspension of all telecommunications. And the duration of such sanctions should be spelled out as permanent for as long as the Lukashenko regime hopes to survive.

There has to be a heavy price on co-operating with Putin’s war. Just as Franco’s Spain held back from joining the Axis powers in 1940 for fear of the consequences, Lukashenko has to understand that further or escalated co-operation with Putin will have existential consequences for his satellite state. He is vulnerable; his regime cannot last in complete dependence on Moscow. However ludicrous or odious it may seem as a state, Belarus cannot survive complete reabsorption into a latter-day Soviet empire. Because Belarus is nominally independent, such a sanctions regime cannot be seen or represented as an escalation threatening Russian sovereignty.

Now is not the time for empty words or gestures. The EU is either serious or it is not about Putin’s plans to use Belarus for its planned new year offensive. There will be little or no point about considering such consequences after the onslaught has begun.

The much-publicised marking of Belarusian military vehicles with square red symbols – the equivalent of Putin’s “Z” symbols – may be intended to scare the Ukrainian army into redeployment of resources to its northern borders. The same may be true of Putin’s December 19th visit to Lukashenko. Nato will know the truth of these matters. But there is no reason to hold back on stating clearly and unambiguously the consequences for Belarus of any further or deeper involvement.

This is work for Iveagh House under its new Minister. It is work that badly needs to be done. And now.