DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson may have to make a defining decision for unionism

A few days after she and Garret FitzGerald agreed to establish an Anglo-Irish intergovernmental council —on November 6th, 1981 — Margaret Thatcher felt the need to reassure unionists: “Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom; as much as my constituency is.” Within hours this had passed into legend as, ‘Northern Ireland is as British as Finchley’ and was spat out over and over by unionists when, four years later, she and Fitzgerald signed the Anglo-Irish Agreement.

With rumours spreading over the past few weeks that the relationship between the British and Irish governments was warmer than it has been for a number of years, raising the possibility that they, along with the European Union, are reaching a potential “sweet spot” resolution to the Northern Ireland protocol impasse, UK foreign secretary (and lead on EU negotiations) James Cleverly decided to reheat the Thatcher reassurance.

Responding to a question at a House of Commons committee on November 15th — anniversary of the unionist-despised Anglo-Irish Agreement — he said: “At the fundamental level it is about the recognition that Northern Ireland is an integral part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, just as Braintree (his constituency) is in North Essex. Northern Ireland. North Essex. They are part of the UK. That’s really important”. Hmm. Yet not so important that he voted against the Northern Ireland protocol which created a new border between the North and Great Britain. It reduced Northern Ireland to the constitutional equivalent of a granny flat.

It is possible, although very unlikely, the deal might be much better than expected and easily sold to Donaldson’s party

However much he believes or doesn’t believe what he said, or however much unionists believe that he believes it (and the response from them didn’t even reach tepid), the fact remains that relations between the governments have clearly improved. Whether they can jointly persuade the EU to be flexible enough —for unionism — to underwrite a bespoke deal that acknowledges and accommodates the complexities of the impasse remains unclear, but it seems as if that is the collective direction of travel.

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If it is and if it succeeds then it raises a huge problem for Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP. It might place him in the same spot as David Trimble found himself in December 1999 (when he signed off on an executive which included Sinn Fein), or Ian Paisley in May 2007 (when he headed the executive with Martin McGuinness as his deputy). Both moments were shockwave ones for unionism, albeit at a time when the first minister was a unionist, a unionist party was the largest and unionism had an overall majority of MLAs. That would not be the case if Donaldson were to accept a new UK-Irish-EU deal — maybe within a few weeks — and reboot the Executive with Sinn Féin as the largest party and Michelle O’Neill as first minister.

There are three main scenarios. It is possible, although very unlikely, the deal might be much better than expected and easily sold to his party. Or, more likely, the deal is problematic, but not impossible. Yes, he could reject it, but he knows that may mean the end of the Assembly, with the deal implemented anyway. Which would leave the option of the “it’s as good as it gets” route taken by Trimble and Paisley, in which he would ask his MLAs, MPs and party officers to support him and take the risk to secure devolution. They could, I think, be persuaded.

That said, the difficulty with any return to the Executive in the absence of a deal which hasn’t removed the protocol entirely or reformed it beyond recognition (neither of which I think is likely), is the pressure he would come under from the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) party. It may only have one MLA, Jim Allister, but in May’s Assembly election it attracted almost 40,000 extra votes from the DUP. Allister is also opposed to any unionist being “bridesmaid” to a Sinn Féin first minister and, along with the paramilitary-linked Loyalist Communities Council, elements of the Orange Order and growing numbers of new-generation loyalism, has no particular interest in copperfastening survival of the Assembly.

If the DUP could persuade the smaller, more moderate UUP to support its decision to rejoin the Executive … it is possible the threat from the TUV would be containable

If the DUP did sign off on a deal to restore the Assembly and agreed to nominate a deputy to O’Neill, it would mean no Assembly election until 2027. But there will be council elections in May 2023, where the DUP would come under very heavy fire from the TUV. Yet if the DUP could persuade the smaller, more moderate UUP to support its decision to rejoin the Executive — which I think is likely — it is possible the threat from the TUV would be containable. It is, of course, a huge risk for the DUP; yet it is maybe the only option if it wants to save devolution and avoid direct rule.

The other scenario is that the DUP rejects everything which doesn’t include a completely satisfactory resolution to its protocol concerns. In a recent LucidTalk opinion poll for the Belfast Telegraph, 80 per cent of those who voted unionist at the last election said they didn’t want the DUP budging until the protocol was gone or changed significantly. So, if a deal falls short of providing those resolutions (although “significantly” always leaves room for manoeuvre) it would be extremely hard for Donaldson to compromise.

All of which means he may, and very soon, have to make the most difficult call of his career: compromise for the sake of devolution, or refuse to bend and risk the return of direct rule in a form which includes very significant input from an Irish Government. He knows, of course, as do all of the key players within his party, that there will be no form of direct rule which excludes input from an Irish Government. That has been the case since October 1972 and it’s not going to change now. The decision he makes may well be the most important decision a unionist leader has made in the entire history of Northern Ireland.

• Alex Kane is a commentator based in Belfast. He was formerly director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party