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What would unionists talk about if they organised a weekend convention?

Ireland’s Future event set out its agenda - Ulster unionists could learn a lot from it to explain why the union with Britain matters

Actor James Nesbitt delivers the keynote address at a rally for Irish unification organised by pro-unity group, Ireland's Future at the 3Arena in Dublin. Photograph: PA

Alex Kane
Mon Oct 10 2022 - 05:00

Too many of the audience at the Ireland’s Future event in Dublin earlier this month had already decided a united Ireland was inevitable and therefore too many of the contributions were dull, predictable and sometimes hubristic. But even if it was a bit of a damp squib in terms of turnout, with evangelical fervour and sparse detail on the nuts and bolts of unity, it was not so insignificant that it should be ignored.

It was an important event, if only because of the political parties and group interests now identifying with it. I know, too, that the organisers will learn lessons from the occasional hiccups and address them for future events and rallies — not least ensuring the obvious divisions aren’t manifested in booing.

If I were an Irish nationalist I would be doing exactly what the people behind Ireland’s Future are doing — preparing for something that, while not inevitable, is certainly possible or likely within a few years. My Dad had good advice: “If something is possible, no matter how far down the track, then unionists should consider it and have options prepared. The knee-jerk response is always the worst response.”

It isn’t just ‘Ulster’ unionism which faces existential challenges: unionism across Britain faces similar challenges, not least because of the rise of a new form of English nationalism

So, as a unionist, I would like to see “Ulster” unionism (a very specific identity) do something similar. I know some unionists fear going down that path might suggest to political opponents that we have difficult challenges ahead. So be it. Unionism does have difficult challenges ahead.

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In 2012 former DUP leader Peter Robinson proposed a “council for the union” to bring together all sections of the unionist/pro-union community and prepare for those challenges. In 2015 the Constitution Reform Group (chaired by Lord Salisbury and with members connected to the main parliamentary parties) published Towards a New Act of Union, a discussion paper based on the premise that “the United Kingdom as a united and effective union is under threat, is worth saving and can be saved”.

In January this year Michael Gove (then a UK cabinet member) announced the creation of a new council, to be chaired by the British prime minister, bringing together the first ministers of Wales and Scotland and the first and deputy first ministers of Northern Ireland “to find solutions to mutual problems and protect the union”. A few weeks later the House of Lords published a report suggesting the British government needed to “articulate a compelling vision and narrative for the UK”. And on November 23rd, Arlene Foster, the former DUP leader and first minister will be launching Together UK, to “make a positive, logical and rational case for the union across the UK”.

In other words, concerns about the constitutional integrity of the UK predate the founding of Ireland’s Future and of Brexit, arguably going back as far as Tony Blair’s “devolution revolution” in 1997. It isn’t just “Ulster” unionism which faces existential challenges: unionism across Britain faces similar challenges, not least because of the rise of a new form of English nationalism which doesn’t seem to care all that much about the “Celtic fringes”.

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That’s why it seems sensible for the unionist/pro-union communities (which don’t all speak with one voice, by the way) to mirror the strategy of Ireland’s Future and find a way of coming together and, at the very least, agreeing a set of common and bonding principles for Northern Ireland remaining within the UK. And that’s a task made more pressing by recent comments from Norman Tebbit, an ally of Margaret Thatcher and a rock-solid unionist: “It looks more likely than not that, in the not-too-distant future, the province will become part of the Republic.”

What would unionists do if they organised a weekend convention? Well, they could, for starters consider a number of questions: Can they, with any confidence, dismiss the possibility of a Border poll in the next decade or so? How do they calculate, with any degree of accuracy, the present levels of support for the union? What are the beliefs and values which underpin their support for the union? How do they maximise unionist/pro-union votes at elections? Is it possible to establish a standing forum into which all strands of the unionist/pro-union community have an input and from which an agreed message and strategy can emerge? How do they build the relationship between “Ulster” unionism and unionism across Britain? How likely is it that the main parties at Westminster would display a greater interest in “Ulster” unionism? What is the best way of promoting their beliefs while deconstructing the arguments of the pro-Irish unity lobby? What must unionism do to attract support from those who have not been natural unionists? What are the arguments which outweigh the Irish unity case? And finally: How do unionists address the crucial issue of trust in successive Westminster governments and their accusations of serial betrayal since the prorogation of Stormont in March 1972?

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Unionism is a remarkably diverse community, including: five unionist parties (at the moment); the Orange Order and other smaller offshoots; a host of Protestant denominations; working-class loyalism; paramilitary loyalism; civic unionism; a pro-union demographic which votes for the constitutionally agnostic Alliance Party; a pro-union demographic which doesn’t vote at all; and below that a confetti of liberal, moderate, small-u, secular, latte-drinking demographics.

If the union is to survive then those who would champion it need the overwhelming support of those who, in one form or another, still consider themselves to be broadly pro-union. It would be arrogance and stupidity of epic proportions to assume all of those votes can be banked automatically. Their support will have to be hard won, particularly if they are hearing a coherent argument for Irish unity at the same time.

If some unionists feel the need to dismiss Ireland’s Future out of hand, I can live with that. Indeed, I understand it. What unionism must not do, though, is make false assumptions based on dodgy interpretations of census and polling figures. Irish unity is on the agenda. Unionism must be fully prepared to counter that agenda with a coherent, attractive, realistic agenda of its own.

Alex Kane is a commentator based in Belfast. He was formerly director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party

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