For decades – before and after the Good Friday Agreement – we’ve described cross-community relationships in Northern Ireland as being stuck between the rock and a hard place of polarising sectarian toxicity. Yet optimists always held on to the hope that the toxic space would, somehow, be turned into a sort of sweet spot where we would find a way of rubbing along together while doing our collective best to address and resolve the socio-economic problems that impact us all, irrespective of constitutional standpoint.
My fear – and it comes with the caveat that I’m a congenital pessimist – is that increasing numbers aren’t even bothering to hunt for something to be glad about
Yet the latest poll from LucidTalk (published last weekend) suggests that the rock and hard place have finally just crashed into each other, leaving us with little more than the dust of exploded optimism and opportunity. Even Pollyanna would be hard pushed to find something positive to justify her terribly twee view that “there is something about everything that you can be glad about, if you keep hunting long enough to find it.” My fear – and it comes with the caveat that I’m a congenital pessimist – is that increasing numbers aren’t even bothering to hunt for something to be glad about.
According to the poll, the vast majority of unionists (82 per cent) oppose a return to “normal business” at the Assembly until the protocol has either been removed completely or changed beyond recognition. But even if the new prime minister – likely to be Liz Truss – did deliver for unionism generally and the DUP in particular, the Newtonian nature of local politics would, almost certainly, result in an equal and opposite response which would see Sinn Féin refusing to reboot the assembly and the executive.
The fact that the poll also indicates three-quarters of republicans/nationalists agreeing with Michelle O’Neill’s recent assessment that there was “no alternative” to the IRA campaign has also changed the dynamics very considerably. Most unionists accepted that the price for devolution was sharing power with SF/IRA – even while believing the IRA were always out-and-out terrorists. But to have the leader of SF say something as brazen as “no alternative” to a terrorist campaign which lasted from 1970 to the second ceasefire in 1997 has angered even those unionists who rarely get angered.
Jeffrey Donaldson, desperate to recoup a sizeable chunk of the 40,000 or so votes lost to the more hardline TUV in May’s election and win the extra couple of seats needed to bypass SF and reclaim the post of first minister (which is why he may now favour an early election) will hope to use O’Neill’s comments in precisely the same way she used Arlene Foster’s ‘crocodile’ comments in the 2017 election and the failure of Donaldson and Beattie during the Assembly election in May to answer the question: “Would you serve as deputy first minister if SF emerges as the largest party?”
While Alliance may be doing well – and deserves recognition for its growth under leader Naomi Long – the idea that there is a burgeoning centrist vote is, I think, fanciful
It’s a “moment” the DUP wasn’t expecting, but it could deliver votes and seats. That said, O’Neill, according to the poll, doesn’t seem to have been damaged electorally and she’ll also be helped by the ongoing decline of the SDLP, now down to 7 per cent. The stark, glad-game-crushing reality is that what are sometimes described as the “moderate” wings of unionism and nationalism – the SDLP and UUP – are being pulverised by the joint inflexibilities of the DUP and SF. Neither bloc seems particularly interested in reaching out to the other: which makes both reconciliation and stable devolution seemingly impossible to achieve.
Centre-ground ‘surge’?
At this point, somebody usually jumps in and reminds me of the “surge” in centre-ground support. Hmm. At the first assembly election, in June 1998, the “moderates” of the UUP and SDLP, along with Alliance, accounted for about 50 per cent of the overall votes and 58 of the 108 seats. At May’s election, the combined vote of those parties was 34% per cent, with 34 of the now 90 seats. So, while Alliance may be doing well – and deserves recognition for its growth under leader Naomi Long – the idea that there is a burgeoning centrist vote is, I think, fanciful. Indeed, it seems likely to me that both the DUP and SF will grow at the next election, taking seats from the UUP and SDLP.
I have no idea how we recover, let alone restore what could be recognised as a serious, stable form of devolution again. Even the use of “again” seems preposterous, bearing in mind that every one of the seven assemblies has faced multiple crises. It also seems fairly evident that growing numbers within the unionist/loyalist/nationalist/republican blocs (who, according to the poll and May’s election still account for almost 80 per cent of those who vote) are no longer interested in prioritising devolution as a long-term solution. And, for the life of me, I can’t see a route from the present chaos to anything remotely resembling stability.
That’s not to say that something won’t be cobbled together over the next few months — since neither the DUP nor SF will want to take a hit right now for permanently walking away during the greatest cost-of-living crisis since the 1970s. But the Pollyannas out there finally need to acknowledge the grim reality that the hope of 1998 is dead. Not pining for the fiords. Not nailed to a perch. Just dead. The Good Friday Agreement delivered peace (for which we should be thankful). It also lumbered us with ongoing stalemate: and that’s the real problem.
Alex Kane is a commentator based in Belfast. He was formerly director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party.