The opinion poll published in this newspaper yesterday follows a litany of similar ones. Paradoxically, as a political project the increasingly unpopular Coalition is wildly successful, in delivering its objective. Three party leaders who received a drubbing at the general election architected a government to gain office and avoided either opposition or oblivion.
The party with effective agency after the election was Fianna Fáil. As the votes were counted Micheál Martin momentarily wavered in his determination not to coalesce with Sinn Féin. Fine Gael’s first instinct was to go into opposition, rebuild, and provide a clear alternative for the future. Martin’s prevarication instantly evaporated. Varadkar wrestled with his conscience a little longer. The result, however, was the same.
Martin, afraid he couldn’t survive politically the U-turn which partnership with Sinn Féin represented, masterminded the current Coalition. Agnostic on policy, he split the differences between the Greens and Fine Gael. The result was an election as consequential as 1918, 1932, 1989 or 2011. The outcome permanently reshaped politics. The price of office for a privileged few in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael was to hand over, uncontested, the role of leader of the opposition to Sinn Féin. The government parties have been fish in a barrel since. By standing together, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael finally admitted they stood for nothing.
Since the last election Fine Gael support in opinion polls from peak to trough has halved
On Wednesday night Fianna Fail TDs were in buoyant form in the Dail chamber lambasting Sinn Féin’s lack of solutions for complex problems during the debate of the confidence motion brought by Sinn Féin. But when they had the chance they had neither the courage nor concern to bring them into government. With more Dáil seats, but fewer votes, it was Fianna Fáil’s last change to attempt to reassert its historic dominance. Once possessed of an insatiable appetite for power, the party settled in the end — at Martin’s insistence — for office at any price.
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There is remorse now on the Fianna Fáil backbenches. But they were willing navies building the edifice they are trapped in. The pity is most of them will never even lick the spoon of ministerial office. It was Michael Martin’s singular achievement to curate the weakest parliamentary party in Fianna Fáil’s history. Their compliance and complicity was nearly complete.
Leo Varadkar leads a party that is a shadow of the one Enda Kenny left behind. Of his Fine Gael colleagues in government, only Helen McEntee owes her promotion to him. The ambitious, young men who crowded around him on his way to the top are left out or fallen away. Team Leo didn’t deliver for them. Since the last election Fine Gael support in opinion polls from peak to trough has halved. In 2011 it was briefly Fianna Fáil’s replacement as the natural party of government. Now it’s identity is frittered away in reactive interventions from their leader, paid for with a promiscuity that undermines the purpose of the party.
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The Greens may well be obliterated again at the next election, as they were in 2011. They at least have a clear purpose. Their agenda is also a fault line. As pressure bears down with greater force on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, and decarbonisation is the only transformative plan in hand, siding with vested interests against survival of the planet is tempting. As Taoiseach, Martin had an inexhaustible supply of borrowed money to square circles. The green agenda was still at the conceptual stage. As negotiations on a carbon budget come to a crunch over agriculture, hard choices have to be made. But that’s only the taster menu.
However, unpalatable for farmers the stated percentages for carbon reduction may be, they are only words on a page, not facts on the ground. Implementation next year and the year after falls to Varadkar as Taoiseach. Desperate times may call for desperate measures. If Fine Gael finally attempt to fight their way out of the fort, picking a fight with the Greens may be the ruse to do so.
Two other factors are at play. Both of the Government’s own making
The unprecedented rotation of the office of Taoiseach from Martin to Varadkar is testimony to the determination with which this government was put together by those determined to enjoy it. It will also be the final disappointment for parliamentary colleagues excluded from the pleasures of office.
With that disappointment will come a loosening of bonds. However the drama unfolds, the velocity of the downward pressure predicted in opinion polls will eventually cause political reaction. There will be a sudden sharp adjustment either within one or other of the government parties, or between them, or both. They won’t stand to attention together waiting for the volley from the firing squad.
Events have certainly driven down support for the government. On inflation, housing, waiting lists or energy security there is no light on the horizon.
But two other factors are at play. Both of their own making. The first was forming a government that allow Sinn Féin avoid responsibility, while ensuring that the three centrist parties that comprise it became less than the sum of their parts.
The second is more profound. It is the end of the social contract. Educating a generation but failing to house them, has upended the status quo. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael thought that holding the centre was a version of staying the same. They are stunned again by the ingratitude of the Irish people.