Confrontation between EU and UK looking more and more likely

A wounded and cornered Boris Johnson seems intent on provoking a serious confrontation with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol in order to rally the Brexiteer wing of the Conservative Party to his side. The big question is whether enough mainstream Tory MPs will risk their careers by opposing his plan.

While the protocol has undoubtedly created difficulties, as well as opportunities, for Northern Ireland, the real motivation for Johnson’s unilateral move was revealed in recent days by his deputy chief of staff, David Canzini. He told Conservative special advisers that Brexit would be at the very top of the government’s agenda as a way to keep Johnson’s core voters in Leave-supporting areas on side, particularly those who switched from Labour to Conservative in the 2019 general election.

A number of Conservative MPs are known to be deeply unhappy at the plan to disapply the protocol but voting against the legislation in parliament is another matter. Given that 148 of his own MPs voted no confidence in Johnson’s leadership it has been widely pointed out that he actually only has the support of one third of the members of the House of Commons.

[ Protocol impasse the latest chapter in well over a century of Tory misuse of the Irish question ]

[ Johnson facing battle with DUP and hardline Brexiteers over protocol Bill ]

In theory this means he could end up in the same position as Theresa May when her own hardline MPs combined with the Opposition in 2019 to vote down her deal with the EU and ultimately drive her from office.

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However, the prospect of that happening on the protocol may be remote. Some of those who voted against Johnson, like Steve Baker, are ardent Brexiteers while those who favour honouring the UK’s international obligations face the prospect of expulsion from their party and denunciation by the Tory press if they dare to defy the whip.

Shortly before the Brexit referendum in 2016 a senior British civil servant remarked at a dinner in Dublin that being in favour of the EU in Whitehall was akin to being a Catholic during the reign of Henry VIII. The hostile reaction to the suggestion from Johnson critic Tobias Ellwood that the UK should consider rejoining the European Single Market shows that mood has intensified since then.

While a significant number of Conservative MPs do have serious reservations about breaking the deal that was touted by Johnson as getting Brexit done, they don’t have the fanaticism or the ruthlessness that motivated the Brexiteers to destroy Theresa May.

In a speech in the House of Commons last month she made no bones about her view that to introduce legislation in breach of the protocol would be a big mistake.

“I put a deal before the House that met the requirements of the Good Friday Agreement and enabled us not to have a border down the Irish Sea or between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Sadly, the Democratic Unionist Party and others across the House chose to reject that.”

The nub of the issue is Johnson signed a deal that was 95 per cent of the one agreed by May with the difference being that he agreed to a border in the Irish Sea rather than have the UK as a whole remain in the single market.

The publication of the legislation to override that deal will be just the first step in a process that will take some time. The bill will have to be debated and voted on in the Commons and will then have to be approved by the House of Lords before it becomes law. The expectation is it should get through the Commons but the House of Lords could delay it for a long time.

In the meantime the EU will have to decide on its response to Britain’s move. Up to now the Irish Government has been urging Brussels to adopt a cautious line and avoid confrontation but how long that position is tenable is a moot point.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin told the European Parliament on Wednesday that unilateral action by the British government to set aside a solemn international agreement would be deeply damaging.

“It would mark an historic low point signalling a disregard for essential principles of laws, which are the foundation of international relations. And it would, quite literally, be to the benefit of absolutely no one.”

Martin drew a distinction between what he termed the absence of political will on the part of the British government to negotiate and genuine concerns about how the protocol is operating.

“Unionist politicians have raised legitimate questions on issues around the operation of the protocol. And we believe, the European Union believes, that it can resolve these issues,” he said.

The president of the parliament Roberta Metsola took a much harder line as she introduced Martin.

“Renegotiating the protocol on Northern Ireland is not an option. The European Parliament has reiterated its unwavering support for the protocol on several occasions, and we remain fully committed to preserving peace on the island of Ireland.”

If Johnson gets his legislation to override the protocol passed, an all-out confrontation with the EU will be inevitable. That may not happen for some time but, if and when it does, the consequences for this country will be entirely negative.