Yeltsin's bypass delay increases risk of crisis

THE decision by cardiologists yesterday to delay operating on Mr Boris Yeltsin's sick heart amounted to a prescription for weeks…

THE decision by cardiologists yesterday to delay operating on Mr Boris Yeltsin's sick heart amounted to a prescription for weeks more political uncertainty, despite putting the Kremlin's worst fears to rest.

The good news is that delaying the operation would give him an almost 100 per cent chance of survival and of resuming normal work. The bad news was that the bypass operation will not go ahead for six weeks, with recuperation of up to two months.

The impact of Mr Yeltsin's absence will be limited by the fact that he has been little more than a figurehead during the summer, Russian political experts said.

But they said there was also a danger that rivalries in the Kremlin would intensify and upset the delicate balance in the team which is governing on his behalf.

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"In one sense this delay is not a sensation because Yeltsin has not controlled anything for a long time and to an extent the Russian regime is already operating without him," a political analyst, Ms Lilia Shevtsova, said. "What we face is unpredictability and stagnation," she added.

The main power rivals are widely depicted as the Prime Minister, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, who is stolidly proreform, and security tsar, Gen Alexander Lebed, an ambitious but politically inexperienced reserve general.

Another potential presidential hopeful is the Moscow mayor, Mr Yuri Luzhkov, and the Kremlin chief of staff, Mr Anatoly Chubais, is widely seen as keen to accumulate power despite being an unlikely challenger.

Mr Yeltsin looks likely to delay transferring his duties temporarily to Mr Chernomyrdin until he has surgery.

"If powers were transferred to Chernomyrdin temporarily, everything would be clear cut and the powers of Lebed and Chubais would be watered down," said Lyudmila Telen, deputy editor of the Moscow News newspaper. "Without the decree, these two will continue to try to have an influence in the economy and political matters."

Ms Shevtsova said such rivalries could lead to increased confusion in policy making. Worse still, she said, decisions on important issues could be put off entirely, increasing the risk of a crisis blowing up over problems such as a backlog of unpaid wages to millions of workers.

"Tension could increase and problems could grow in areas such as the far east and central Russia. The big question is whether all these problems are concentrated at the same time," she said.

The former Soviet leader, Mr Mikhail Gorbachev, said in a radio interview that the president should resign to stop Russia becoming a "hostage of unclear, troubled times".

He drew a parallel with Brezhnev's latter years, in which his ability to govern was badly affected by illness in a period known as "the era of stagnation".

But the doctors played down the likelihood of that happening in Mr Yeltsin's case, saying patients usually live for more than 10 years after the operation he is due to have.