Donald Trump's act has not changed. But his audience has. The Republican presidential candidate's failure to tailor his primary-season persona to the distinct requirements of the general election is jeopardising his White House bid after just one week of campaigning.
Despite repeated vows to pivot to a more "presidential" approach, it has been a disastrous week for Trump. He engaged in a protracted war of words with the parents of a Muslim American soldier who died in Iraq; declined to endorse key members of his own party, including House speaker Paul Ryan; called for a crying baby to be removed from one of his rallies and claimed that the election was "rigged" against him.
Trump has bounced back from previous furores, such as his widely criticised attack on Gonzalo Curiel, the federal judge overseeing two lawsuits against the billionaire's ill-fated Trump University. But this week could be a turning point if, as many in the Republican establishment now fear, Trump proves incapable of adjusting his strategy.
“Appealing to a majority of Republicans is not the same as appealing to a majority of the electorate,” says Henry Olsen, an elections analyst at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
Less advantageous
“The general election is more diverse. It’s younger. It’s less white. It’s more liberal,” said Sean Trende, senior analyst for RealClear Politics. “In almost every conceivable way, it’s less advantageous for a candidate like Trump.”
In part, that is because Trump's white, working-class base – which backs him over Hillary Clinton by nearly two-to-one in the latest CNN poll – makes up a smaller slice of the general election vote.
White voters who lacked a college degree cast more than 50 per cent of the Republican primary votes. In November, they’ll probably account for about 35 per cent, says Olsen.
Indeed, Trump is waging a campaign better suited to a bygone age. In 1974, almost three-quarters of eligible voters were members of the white working class, according to a 2015 Center for American Progress study. Though he often boasts about the 13 million votes he won in the primaries, he will probably need more than 65 million to win the White House.
The provocative statements and uncompromising "America-first" policies making Trump a working-class darling repel millions of voters. Republican Mitt Romney, for example, won college-educated whites by a double digit margin four years ago. Trump now trails Clinton 49 per cent to 37 per cent among that group.
Difficult
“No Republican has ever lost college-educated whites. That is his problem. He keeps doubling, tripling, quadrupling down on high-school-educated whites,” said
Paul Begala
, a Democratic strategist. “The things he’s done to secure that vote are going to make it very difficult, perhaps even impossible, to add to that the other 55 million votes he needs to be president.”
Trump shows little sign of having a general election strategy. His campaign has booked almost no television advertising for the autumn, even as the Clinton campaign has reserved roughly $100 million (€90 million). His field organisation is thin and his travel schedule has seemed idiosyncratic. This week, for example, he scheduled a rally in upstate New York – a state that has not gone Republican since 1984 and where Clinton enjoys a 12-point lead in the latest poll. The event was ultimately cancelled.
Likewise, in Ashburn, Virginia, he got little response when he cited several factory closures, perhaps because they occurred hundreds of miles away in distant corners of the state.
By the end of the week, amid reports of a dysfunctional and dispirited staff, Trump trailed Clinton 44 per cent to 35 per cent in a Fox News poll that included the Libertarian candidate, former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson.
Trump rode his popularity among white working-class voters to victory in the primaries. But what worked with the GOP is falling flat with the 64 per cent of the electorate that identifies as something other than Republican. Separate surveys showed Trump lagging behind in several battleground states, including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. As reality dawns, mainstream Republicans are beginning to head for the exits. Meg Whitman, chief executive of Hewlett-Packard and a former Republican gubernatorial candidate in California, announced she will vote for Clinton and raise money for her. Three Republican congressmen also defected. And a slew of local party officials, strategists and former Republican officials came out against their nominee.
Still, it is only August. Along with the Republican National Committee, Trump raised $82 million in July, nearly keeping pace with the $90 million of the Clinton campaign and the Democratic Party. Despite a dreadful week, he remains within striking distance. But to close the widening gap with Clinton, Trump must avoid a repeat of this week's cascade of errors. Political analysts of all stripes remain unconvinced he can.
– The Financial Times
