State by state: Where the US election will be won and lost

At 59 days out from the US presidential election, Democrat Hillary Clinton has the upper hand over Republican Donald Trump based on an average of polls.

While the national polls may show Trump narrowing Clinton’s overall lead from about eight points to just under three over the past month, it is the performances of the candidates in the handful of swing states that will determine who is the next person in the Oval Office.

Even before considering the 11 battleground states that traditionally decide the election – and one or two more Republican states that the alienating Trump may push into play – Clinton has a comfortable head-start of 200 to 165 electoral votes in the race to the 270 finish line.

This is based on polls showing states that are either likely Democratic wins or leaning that way.

Of the 13 battleground states profiled here, Clinton leads Trump in 11, according to an average polls by election tracking website Real Clear Politics, though her advantage is marginal – a point or less – in four of those states.

Right now, the most critical battleground states in this year's electoral college count are Florida (29), Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15).

They are the closest to call and the biggest swing states in terms of electoral votes up for grabs.

Polls show Clinton and Trump locked in virtual ties in each of those states – a percentage point or less separates the two candidates.

Pennsylvania, a key target under Trump's rust-belt strategy to win over record numbers of economically frustrated blue-collar white voters, is in the "toss-up" category too, although in reality the polls are giving Clinton a commanding lead in the Keystone State that would put her on course to write the state's 20 electorate votes in her column come November 8th.

Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire, three other traditional swing states, appear to be long shots for Trump.

Virginia has moved from solidly Republican to battleground to a blue-tinged state over the past 12 years.

Demographic changes

Colorado has followed suit, while polling in Georgia and Arizona, long-time Republican strongholds, suggests that demographic changes in those states, with growing Hispanic and black voting blocs, may soon bring them into play and possibly even in this election, given the unpopularity of Trump among those groups.

Clinton does not even need such historic gains to add to her advantage.

With Democratic holds in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Hampshire, the second-time candidate could win the White House without need any of the big swing states of Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.

For Trump, it's a far different story. The loss of North Carolina, which the 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney stole back from Barack Obama, could prove fatal to his chances.

“He needs to hold on to every state Romney won, which includes North Carolina, and win 64 more electoral votes to win a majority of 270,” says Geoffrey Skelley, an associate editor at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election analysis website moderated by the University of Virginia.

“Without North Carolina, that number rises to 79, and it’s almost impossible to see him winning in that scenario.”

Trump is running Clinton close in Iowa and Nevada, states that Obama won twice, although if the Republican nominee were to take both, they would bring modest gains (six electoral votes from each).

Adding victories in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio would make the businessman very competitive and the race much closer than the polls are presently suggesting.

“It’s hard to see how he gets to 270 – Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia are reaches at this point – but his chances of winning would certainly rise if it looks like he could feasibly make things that close,” Skelley says.

Clinton’s massive advantage over Trump on spending, ground operations and voter-turnout drive combined with his handicap in the electoral college means that he is relying heavily on his celebrity status and populist message to get out the vote. “She has a much larger margin of error than Trump does.

It is much easier for her to get to 270," according to Andrew Taylor, politics professor at North Carolina State University.

“Trump’s effort is much more of a threading of the needle. It is going to be much more easy for him to do that if there is a national trend or a break for him than trying to fight state-by-state on idiosyncratic, localised matter. If it breaks against him, he has got no chance.”

Battleground

Florida

29 electoral votes

Polls show Clinton and Trump in a dead heat in Florida, the largest swing state. Clinton has strong support among Hispanic and other non-whites. They made up 30 per cent of voters four years ago and Clinton will benefit from an influx of Puerto Ricans since then. Trump is popular among military families and veterans and with working-class whites angry with politicians that their economic lot has not improved.

Ohio

18 electoral votes

The rust belt state’s large population of blue-collar whites in the northeast and the Appalachian southeast may help Trump outperform Mitt Romney’s effort in 2012, although this may be offset by Clinton’s support among college graduates alienated by Trump. It is a tight race: the Real Clear Politics average of polls gives Clinton a one-point lead, while this week’s Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll put Trump up three points.

North Carolina

15 electoral votes

Trump needs to retain this purple state (won by Republicans in 2012 but lost in 2008) to help close the Democratic electoral advantage. The large non-white population (about 29 per cent of the state) and significant numbers of white college graduates around the major cities will favour Clinton but this is a conservative state, so it will be close. An effective grassroots organisation and early-voting drives may give Clinton an edge.

Pennsylvania

20 electoral votes

Trump’s “America First” jobs pledge appeals to many in the declining coal-mining and steel-milling towns of rural Pennsylvania. However, he will have to mobilise these voters in big numbers – along with moderate suburban Republicans, with whom he is struggling – to counter strong Democratic support in and around Philadelphia if he is to become the first Republican to win here since 1988. Polls have Clinton in a high single-digit lead.

Iowa

6 electoral votes

The state has voted Democrat in six of the last seven presidential elections and twice for Obama, but polling averages give Trump a razor-thin edge. The state has a 92 per cent white population where the businessman has his strongest support, particularly among white working-class voters. Clinton has struggled here in Democratic primaries, coming third in 2008 and eking out a tiny win over Bernie Sanders this year. Winning over 36 per cent of registered voters who identify themselves as independents will be key to victory in the Hawkeye State.

Nevada

6 electoral votes

Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama each won Nevada twice, so it’s as purple as the battlegrounds come. Nevada has the second largest Hispanic population of the swing states (behind Arizona and ahead of Florida) but the Real Clear Politics average poll shows Trump, despite his anti-Latino rhetoric, within two points of Clinton’s lead. This is the fruit of the Republican devoting resources to Nevada and a message that is resonating in a state with high unemployment and low education levels.

Arizona

11 electoral votes

The last two Democrats to win Arizona were Bill Clinton in 1996 and Harry Truman in 1948, so this should be a deeply crimson state. Trump’s hardline stance on illegal immigration and offensive remarks about Mexicans have alienated many Hispanics who make up almost a third of Arizona’s population. The Clinton camp is eyeing an opportunity. Most polls show a very tight race here.

Georgia

16 electoral votes

This year’s unconventional match-up between two deeply unpopular candidates has the potential to redraw the electoral map and Georgia, like Arizona, could see significant changes. This southern state only voted Democrat three times since 1964 – for home-boy Jimmy Carter twice, in 1976 and 1980, and Bill Clinton in 1992. Clinton trails Trump by just 1.6 points, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, benefiting from the Republican’s poor support among black Georgians who make up 32 per cent of the population.

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes

Democrats have not lost Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide but polls show Trump making this race competitive. The Badger State has a large white population and has a lower number of college graduates than other battleground states. The Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll gave Clinton a two-point lead over Trump here, compared with a five-point lead in the Real Clear Politics poll average.

Virginia

13 electoral votes

This state most reflects the changing demographics favouring the Democrats. It was a Republican stronghold until 2008 when Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win Virginia in 44 years. A large black population (20 per cent of residents) along with growing immigrant communities and big numbers of college graduates in northern Virginia, including in the Washington suburbs, makes this tough territory for Trump. Poll-tracking website Five Thirty Eight gives Clinton a 82 per cent chance of winning.

Michigan

16 electoral votes

This state shows the weakness in Trump’s rust belt plan of attack. The industrial midwestern state is swinging towards Clinton – by seven points in the Real Clear Politics average and with a 74 per cent chance of victory by Five Thirty Eight. But the 50-state Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll gave Clinton a lead of only two points this week. One in five people in Michigan is non-white, creating a demographic that will make it hard for Trump to become the first Republican to win this state since 1988.

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes

Trump should be performing better among New Hampshire’s predominantly white population but the New England state’s famous independent streak is favouring Clinton. Real Clear Politics polling average gives her a lead of almost eight points, while Five Thirty Eight says she has a 68 per cent change of winning the state.

Colorado

9 electoral votes

Most polls show Clinton soaring ahead in Colorado, a state Obama won twice but Democrats lost on the previous three occasions. Real Clear Politics puts her lead on average polling at almost 10 points. Still, it could be competitive for different reasons. The Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll gave Clinton a lead of just two points in a head-to-head with Trump and tied when Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and the Green Party nominee Jill Stein are included.