The third nominating contests of the US presidential race became a matter of momentum stopped, on the Democratic side, and momentum powering on, on the Republican side.
Hillary Clinton, the one-time presumptive Democratic nominee, halted the march of anti-establishment senator Bernie Sanders with a win in the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.
Outsider businessman Donald Trump, much to the distress of the Republican establishment, carried on his charge to the nomination by emphatically winning South Carolina.
Both candidates have consolidated their claims to frontrunner status for their parties. Both have won two of their first three qualifying heats and are on track to win their fourth – for Trump in Nevada on Tuesday and for Clinton in South Carolina on Saturday.
Her wins have not been as convincing. She won by five points in the first-in-the-west contest, Trump by 10 points in the first in the south.
As the focus turns to the bigger winner-take-all states, the primaries have become Clinton’s to win and and Trump’s to lose.
Clinton stopped the Vermont senator’s momentum from his landslide victory in New Hampshire on February 9th by showing the strength of her ground operation to get the voters out and draw on loyal minority voters – Latinos working on the Las Vegas Strip – in the most populated area of the state around America’s gambling capital.
“Some may have doubted us, but we never doubted each other,” Clinton told supporters at a victory party at Caesar’s Palace.
Southern states
Although the vote among whites and Latinos was more evenly distributed between her and Sanders, a majority of black caucus-goers backed Clinton, putting her in the driving seat for South Carolina and other southern states with large populations of black Democrats.
It illustrates the hurdles Sanders must overcome to prove himself as a viable candidate in the more racially diverse states, beyond the predominantly white populations of Iowa and New Hampshire.
In his concession speech on Saturday, he insisted that Nevada, like New Hampshire, was a success given how much he had closed a large gap on Clinton and insisted the momentum was still with him.
“Five weeks ago, we were 25 points behind in the polls. We’ve made some real progress,” he told supporters.
He looked beyond South Carolina to March 1st when about a dozen states pick nominees for each of the parties. Sanders said his campaign believed that “we have the wind at our back as we head toward Super Tuesday”, as the blockbuster election day is known.
Speaking after his South Carolina victory, Trump predicted the November election would be a head-to-head between him and Clinton and the “greatest turnout in history”. He claimed that he would win states that Republicans don’t normally win by winning poorer African-American voters over to his anti-establishment pitch.
“I’ll win states that Republicans don’t even think of,” he said. “People are not going to die on the streets of any city or of any place if I’m president.”
Former Florida governor Jeb Bush dropped out of the race after a dismal fourth finish, well behind Trump and senators Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, the two candidates fiercely competing for second place and the mantle of strongest alternative who can challenge the billionaire property mogul for the nomination.
Beyond the frontrunners, Rubio has the strong momentum leaving South Carolina for Nevada. He beat the Scripture-quoting Cruz to second place in a state where 72 per cent of Republican voters count themselves as evangelicals or born-again Christians. It raises questions about whether the Texan can win anywhere beyond his home state.
Rubio may have been premature calling the bruising Republican primary "a three-person race," as he did on Saturday. He doesn't have a clear run at establishment votes with Ohio governor John Kasich sticking around until the Michigan primary on March 8th in the hope he can carry his delegate-rich home state a week later.
The still-busy and divided anti-Trump faction, counting for about two thirds of Republican voters in South Carolina, faces a race against time to pick a main challenger. Without one, Trump can win more primaries and caucuses with his core third of the vote.
Back-to-back wins
Coming off back-to-back wins, Trump has the whip hand, a strengthening national profile and a coalition of moderate and partially conservative voters that has backed past Republican winners.
The three past Republicans who won both the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries all went on to win the party’s nomination.
Trump appeared a man in his element in command of a bellicose race he has helped to create and dominate. “Running for president, there’s nothing easy about it,” he said in his victory speech on Saturday. “It’s tough, it’s nasty, it’s mean, it’s vicious, it’s beautiful,” he said. “When you win, it’s beautiful.”