Biden faces hard choices to save key domestic goals

The confirmation on Sunday that his key domestic legislation does not have sufficient votes to pass the US Senate represents a major blow for President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party as he approaches the anniversary of his inauguration and ahead of crucial elections next year.

At present the Democrats control the presidency, the House of Representatives and the Senate, the latter by a very narrow margin.

Such a hold over the political system does not come around frequently and the Democrats had sought to use the opportunity to introduce a raft of various priorities of the different wings of the party in one signature piece of legislation.

The so-called Build Back Better Bill aimed to introduce measures to deal with climate change, to continue the payment of monthly payments to parents, establish universal preschool and cut medical bills, while also expanding areas such as affordable housing and home healthcare among others.

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Some Democratic strategists believed that the implementation of these various measures – along with major infrastructure developments authorised by Congress several weeks ago – would show the party could deliver for ordinary Americans across the country.

However, the costs involved in dealing with all these objectives were massive and on Sunday the whole edifice essentially crumbled under its own weight.

Overreach

Republicans already viewed the Build Back Better plan as overreach by the government that would add to the US deficit.

Democrats countered that the Republicans passed a $1.5 trillion tax cut plan under then president Donald Trump in 2017 without worrying unduly about the impact on the deficit.

The $1.75 trillion Build Back Better plan, which was authorised by the House of Representatives in November, was itself a compromise. Originally there was a projected $4 billion cost but some of this was transferred into the separate infrastructure initiative and more was whittled down as part of political negotiations.

The Democratic Party in the US Congress is a broad church. There are progressives who want to use their time in power to tackle issues such as climate change, child poverty, education system inadequacies and health inequalities.

On the other side there are more moderate Democrats who are concerned at the impact of large increases in government spending on already high inflation levels as well as on the deficit.

In the Senate, Democrats and Republicans are tied at 50 votes each with vice-president Kamala Harris having the deciding say on key issues.

With no margin for error, the tight voting arrangements offers great influence to some senators.

Enter Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who for months has let it be known to the president and congressional leaders that he was uncomfortable with the size and scale of Build Back Better. He was particularly concerned about budgetary "gimmicks" or artificial measures – such as limiting the lifespan of some provisions in the hope that politicians in the future would extend them – in a bid to squeeze the various elements of the Bill below official cost.

Eventually on Sunday, Manchin said he could not move ahead with what he called “this mammoth piece of legislation”.

“I cannot take that risk with a staggering debt of more than $29 trillion and inflation taxes that are real and harmful to every hard-working American at the gasoline pumps, grocery stores and utility bills with no end in sight.”

‘Inexplicable reversal’

The White House, which had been trying to get Manchin onside for weeks, voiced its anger at the move. It said his comments represented "a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position".

The White House vowed it would press on to try to get the legislation passed in the new year.

However, the rejection of the plan by Manchin creates major headaches for the Biden administration. In running for the presidency, Biden supported many of the key measures in the plan.

To get Manchin back on board may mean making hard choices to opt for a smaller number of initiatives which would be fully funded on a lasting basis.

However, all of the measures in the overall programme have champions within the Democratic Party in Congress.

Cutting out some elements to win Manchin’s support may lead to more progressive members rejecting any slimmed-down Bill.

It also means that infighting between the different wings of the Democratic Party will continue at a time when Biden’s poll numbers have been sinking and when most pundits believe the Republicans will take back control following midterm elections next autumn.