Second referendum possible but fundamentals are not favourable

Scots used to scoff at Ireland’s seemingly interminable referendums.

Not anymore. Since 2010, I have voted eight times in Scotland. The inspirational quotes pinned to the wall of Thornwood primary – my local polling station in Glasgow's west end – could hardly be more familiar if I had children attending the school.

The prospect of another trip to the ballot box hung heavy through most of the damp Scottish summer. Within hours of June's Brexit vote, Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon said a second referendum on independence, to protect Scotland's interests in Europe, was "highly likely" .

Since then, the Scottish National Party – in power in the devolved parliament in Edinburgh for almost a decade – has kept up a steady drumbeat for independence.

Earlier this month, the nationalists unveiled a new “conversation” to build support for leaving the UK, including a plan for the party’s 125,000 members to approach two million Scots to assuage their fears about leaving the UK. A “growth commission” is to be established to answer the hoary economic questions – most notably on currency – that dogged the 2014 referendum on independence.

In a UK racked by uncertainty over Brexit, the SNP has positioned itself as the party with a plan. “We want to build, if we can, a consensus on the way forward,” Sturgeon said of independence earlier this month. But such public confidence betrays private concerns about the prospects of winning a second referendum, at least in the short term.

Economically, Scotland is in a far weaker position than in 2014. Oil revenues have collapsed amid a global price war: tax receipts from the North Sea have fallen from over £11 billion in 2011-12 to just £60 million last year. Scotland’s deficit – the difference between what the government raises in tax and what it spends – has spiralled to 9.5 per cent of GDP. The overall figure for the UK is 4 per cent.

The financial fundamentals are not the only problem. When Sturgeon declared “we do not want to leave the European Union” on the morning of the Brexit vote, her strident tone captured the dominant public mood. Every local authority area in Scotland had voted to remain.

Among those most aggrieved at the unexpected prospect of exiting the EU were the middle-class, cosmopolitan elite who backed the union in 2014. In Edinburgh, three-quarters voted to stay in the EU. Fewer than 40 per cent had backed independence.

“Maybe we do need to leave the UK,” one friend who had voted “no” to independence texted me as the Brexit results rolled in. He was not alone. Initial polling suggested a marked surge in support for independence following the vote to leave the EU.

But that swell has subsided. Most Scots are suffering political fatigue. Brexit, it has become apparent, potentially raises more questions than answers for nationalists.

If there is a "hard Brexit" – with curtailments on freedom of movement – would there be a hard border between England and Scotland? If an independent Scotland was inside the EU and England outside, what currency would the new state use? And would the 30-odd per cent of SNP voters who backed leaving the EU really vote for "independence in Europe"?

Nicola Sturgeon's strong words on June 24th soothed frayed nerves but produced a political momentum that nationalists could find difficult to halt. Memories of Gordon Brown, who spent most of his premiership ruing his decision not to call an early snap general election, run deep.

The alternative to yet another vote is a deal with the EU that accommodates Scottish demands. Sturgeon has appointed SNP veteran Mike Russell – a wily political operator – as her government's representative in the Brexit negotiations.

Nationalists would be wise to lobby for the softest possible EU exit for the UK. Scotland will look to Ireland for support. But the prospect of a Westminster government dominated by Leavers acquiescing to Scottish demands seems remote.

Brexit poses other, logistical challenges for Edinburgh. The Scottish parliament lacks policy expertise. Civil servants are already struggling with the raft of new powers transferred to the parliament since 2014.

There is also a paucity of creative thinking. Despite their electoral success and mass membership, the SNP has few effective policy forums.

Power is centred on Sturgeon and her husband, SNP chief executive Peter Murrell. Kites are rarely seen flying from the government backbenches at Holyrood.

And yet, a second independence referendum remains a distinct possibility. Privately, senior party figures maintain that it could be the only option if faced with an unfavourable Brexit deal.

Next month, SNP activists will have a chance to debate a second independence referendum at the party's conference in Glasgow. If most had their way, the polling booths would be back up in Thornwood primary school very soon.