Scotland's debate on independence is intensifying, drawing in many more sections of its population than are usually involved in politics. Its decision on whether to withdraw from the United Kingdom is also deeply affecting other parts of that state – and neighbouring states too, like Ireland. The vote on September 18th will have major consequences whichever way it goes. An independent Scotland would diminish the UK irreversibly; but if Scots decide to stay they will expect greater rights to run their own affairs which will have knock-on effects in Northern Ireland.
It is as well to pay attention to the levels of political engagement in Scotland as to the balance between the Yes and No sides in opinion polling in assessing which side is more likely to win. Polls of polls predict a victory for the No side, representing an increasing convergence, though not the decisive shift supporters of independence have been hoping for. But turnout is a complicating factor. It is expected to be around 80 per cent, compared to the 50 per cent turnout that gave Alex Salmond's Scottish National Party their victory in the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections. Since those who do not normally vote are more inclined to support independence a lot depends on who mobilises them more effectively.
The expected increased turnout gives an advantage to the Yes side in the last 12 weeks of this long campaign. It is better organised on the ground and has so far made the more positive case, compared to the warnings about the risks of breaking away from the UK which have animated the No campaign. However valid these arguments, they are often resented as coming from an uncaring and arrogant mindset in the south-east of England. Such emotional factors are now likely to play a greater role.
Although most of the debate on independence has counterposed Scotland and England, Northern Ireland and Wales have a deep interest in the outcome too. They would remain in a union with an even more dominant England. While they could have more influence in Westminster politics they would find it increasingly difficult to ensure financial and political support from London and to assert their constitutional rights. If Scotland votes to stay in the UK the consequences would also be substantial. Scotland is already being promised deeper devolution, including more tax and spending powers, if it votes No. Northern Ireland and Wales need to prepare for such consequences, which could involve devising a federal system.
Externally too this vote is highly consequential. The UK's world role would be weaker without Scotland. If it stays intact the UK still faces major decisions on its relations with the European Union. A vote by the UK to withdraw would probably reopen the Scottish independence debate. These are uncertain times in our neighbour's politics.