Remain side hoping pattern of Scottish vote is being repeated

The Remain campaign can take some comfort from polls over the weekend, only one of which shows Leave ahead, with two putting Remain in the lead and one showing a dead heat.

Although some field work was conducted after the killing of Labour MP Jo Cox on Thursday, YouGov cautions against linking the shift to a change of mood following the murder. YouGov’s Anthony Wells said in a commentary on its two new polls that a change in direction was already evident earlier last week. “The underlying figures suggest the movement may be more to do with people worrying about the economic impact of leaving,” he said.

"In the Sunday Times poll, 33 per cent of people said they thought that they would be personally worse off if Britain left the EU, up from 23 per cent a fortnight ago and easily the highest we have recorded on this question."

The Remain campaign’s internal tracking poll has yet to detect any impact from Cox’s murder but if Wells is right, this referendum may follow the pattern of others, notably the 2014 vote on Scottish independence.

Status quo

That campaign saw a surge in support for independence a couple of weeks before the vote but voters returned to backing the status quo in the days immediately before the referendum.

“There was a long period of little movement when most ordinary voters were paying little attention . . . followed by a period of movement in favour of Yes, as people were excited by the prospect of change, followed by a sharp correction back to the status quo as, in the final days, people worried about the risks associated with it,” Wells said.

If the polls between now and Thursday confirm that the Leave side’s big leads from last week have evaporated, the tendency of undecided voters to back the status quo could clinch victory for Remain.

But senior Remain campaigners are nervous, fearing that immigration has become a more potent issue than economic security and that Labour has failed to persuade its supporters their interests lie in the EU.