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Two weeks after MPs overwhelmingly rejected her withdrawal agreement, Theresa May's Brexit strategy faces a fresh, disabling blow on Tuesday.
The decision by Conservative Brexiteers to vote against backbencher Graham Brady’s amendment, which the government is backing, suggests that the prime minister cannot win parliamentary approval for a deal on the basis of Conservative and DUP votes.
The Brady amendment calls for the Brexit withdrawal agreement and political declaration to be approved – on condition that the Northern Ireland backstop is replaced with alternative arrangements to prevent a hard border. The prime minister has made clear she is willing to seek changes to the text of the withdrawal agreement, something she has previously ruled out on the basis that the EU would never agree to it.
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The Brady amendment’s demand is unacceptable to the EU but winning a parliamentary majority for it would at least put the prime minister in a position to tell her European counterparts what she needs to persuade enough MPs to back the deal.
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After consulting MPs when her deal was voted down in the Commons, May concluded that her only chance of keeping her party together was by seeking changes to the backstop that would win over Brexiteers and the DUP.
Postponing Brexit
By rejecting the Brady amendment, Conservative Brexiteers will confirm the conviction in Brussels that the prime minister needs to find a different majority for a softer Brexit. The Brexiteers’ action could persuade moderate Conservatives that their only hope of avoiding a no-deal Brexit is to support Labour MP Yvette Cooper’s amendment that would open the way to postponing Brexit by up to nine months.
If Cooper’s amendment succeeds, MPs will take control of the parliamentary timetable for one day next week to debate and vote on a Bill that could postpone Brexit. The government hoped it could block the legislation by filibustering in the House of Lords, where all amendments are debated, and talking the Bill out.
On Monday night, peers foiled the plot by backing a motion calling on the government to rule out a no-deal Brexit and promising to ensure the timely passage of “any legislation that is necessary to implement any deal or proposition that has commanded the support of the majority of the House of Commons”.
The prime minister could yet persuade hardline Brexiteers to back the Brady amendment on Tuesday night if she toughens up her promise to demand changes to the withdrawal agreement itself that would remove the backstop. But to do so would be to render the chance of securing a deal in Brussels all but impossible.