The Labour Party in Britain would win a majority of 84 seats in the House of Commons if an election were held tomorrow, according to new polling in key marginal constituencies published today.
The analysis, commissioned by the Conservative-supporting Lord Michael Ashcroft, is increasingly respected by political parties in Britain, given the resources put behind it.
Nearly 20,000 people were polled in 213 marginal constituencies by Ashcroft, who reported that an 8 per cent swing from the Conservatives to Labour now exists.
The new figures come on a day when polling of Conservative supporters show that only 7 per cent of them believe that prime minister David Cameron can win a majority in the election, due in 2015.
Under the first-past-the-post voting rules used for Commons, Labour enjoys the ability to win a majority with fewer votes than the Conservatives because so many of its seats are in North of England constituencies with falling populations.
Meanwhile, the Ashcroft poll - released as the Liberal Democrats holds its spring conference in Brighton - reports that the junior coalition partners would lose over half of its seats if an election was held today.
Thirteen of the 58 seats held by the Liberal Democrats would fall to Labour, while 17 seats - mostly in the South of England - would fall to the Conservatives, the poll suggests.
Former Liberal Democrats leader, Lord Paddy Ashdown, who is now in charge of the party's preparations for 2015, rallied his troops today, saying that they will never lie down and die.
“For almost all the years of the Twentieth century, the Liberal Democrats and the Liberals before us, have fought General Elections as the outsiders. We can never do so again,” he declared.
“Now we stand before the electorate, not as outsiders but as one of the three Parties bidding to govern of our country. That means our enemies will come for us, if we give them the opportunity,” he said.
However, the Liberal Democrats must not repeat the mistake made in 2010 when it promised to abolish tuition fees only to increase them once in power with the Conservatives.
“It means no promises unless we can be sure to deliver them. It means an election campaign which will have to be tighter, tougher, taughter and more disciplined,” said Lord Ashdown.
