UK

Labour failure to manage expectations allows Tories claim a victory

UK local elections: Conservatives’ relief genuine as party escapes a bloodbath in London

Britain’s prime minister Theresa May flanked by supporters outside Wandsworth Town hall in London after the Conservative party retained control of the council in local elections. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/AFP/Getty Images
Britain’s prime minister Theresa May flanked by supporters outside Wandsworth Town hall in London after the Conservative party retained control of the council in local elections. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/AFP/Getty Images
Denis Staunton's picture
Denis Staunton London Editor
Fri May 04 2018 - 19:48

Labour won more seats than all other parties combined in Thursday's local elections, recording its best result since 1971 in London, where the Conservatives came within a handful of votes of losing control of their flagship council, in Wandsworth. So why was Theresa May on a victory tour on Friday, while Jeremy Corbyn faced questions about his party's failure to do better?

Part of the answer lies in Labour’s failure to manage expectations ahead of the vote, allowing the Conservatives to claim as a victory the fact that they remained in control of some of the wealthiest boroughs in the country.

In the days before the election, Labour activists talked up their chances of winning Wandsworth, which has been under Conservative control since Margaret Thatcher’s era, and Westminster, which has never been won by Labour.

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the British Labour Party, arrives to cast his vote in local elections in London. Photograph: Luke MacGregor/Bloomberg
Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the British Labour Party, arrives to cast his vote in local elections in London. Photograph: Luke MacGregor/Bloomberg

The party should have been in with a chance to win Barnet, in north London, but the controversy over anti-Semitism in Labour helped to tip the borough, which has a substantial Jewish population, to the Conservatives from no overall control.

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Overall, the election saw a consolidation of the trends that emerged in last year's general election, with Labour doing best in metropolitan areas that opposed Brexit in 2016 while the Conservatives flourished in small towns and rural areas that voted Leave. Ukip's collapse allowed the Conservatives to consolidate the right-wing vote, while a resurgence for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens produced some fragmentation on the left which cost Labour some seats in London.

‘Peak Corbyn’

With the two big parties in a dead heat on 35 per cent of the national vote share, neither could win an overall majority in Parliament on the basis of these figures. Despite the spin about the country reaching “peak Corbyn” however, Labour would be in a better position to form a government in such a hung parliament.

Still, the Conservatives' relief on Friday was genuine as the party escaped the bloodbath in London many had feared, and its MPs can persuade themselves that Corbyn's threat is diminished. The fact that 70 per cent of the Conservatives' support came from Leave voters will embolden Tory Brexiteers as they seek to push May towards a harder line in negotiations with the EU.

But Tory Remainers, many of whom represent seats where Labour increased its vote share on Thursday, may be encouraged by the spin about Labour's diminished threat as they prepare to rebel against the government on key Brexit votes.