David Cameron’s refusal to seek third term a statement of obvious

Dennis Andrews caught prime minister David Cameron's attention by waving his walking stick in the air. Very soon afterwards, Cameron was regretting that he noticed him.

Yesterday, Andrews (91), from Nottingham, pined for the days of Lord Beaverbrook in the second World War, when the Canadian took the ministry for aircraft protection by the scruff of the neck to build Spitfires during the Battle of Britain.

A new Beaverbrook is needed now to co-ordinate services for the elderly, who are today getting “the runaround”, said Andrews, declaring angrily: “We deserve the same recognition you give to children.”

Looking flustered on stage, Cameron replied: “I’ll be frank: if you are not satisfied with how elderly people are being looked after and valued by this government, don’t blame other ministers, blame me.”

"We are! We are!" the audience gathered across the road from Westminster Abbey roared back. British politics had not seen anything like it since the Women's Institute slow-hand-clapped Tony Blair 15 years ago.

Cameron is feeling misunderstood. On Monday, filmed chopping vegetables in the sleek kitchen of his Oxfordshire home, the prime minister told the BBC that he would not be seeking a third term in No 10 if re-elected in May.

Bleeding obvious

The story caught the imagination of Fleet Street and British TV, since there is nothing the press loves better than a leadership race. However, Cameron’s declaration is, in so many ways that are difficult to argue in frenzied times, a statement of the bleedingly obvious.

Forty-eight hours ago, few in Westminster believed that Cameron would want to go on even until 2020, let alone after it. The majority in the political village believed he would go, or be pushed, after a European Union referendum in 2017.

Such febrile commentary, now that Cameron has fired the starting pistol on the Conservatives’ leadership race, is beyond laughable, since leading candidates have long since begun currying favour with people whose votes they may one day need.

So what was Cameron up to? His aides argued on Tuesday that he was “giving a straight answer to a straight question”. One can, however, be assured that whatever happened in the Witney kitchen, it was not that.

Long decided on

Cameron’s interrogator, the BBC’s

James Lansdale

, believes he put into words something that he had long since decided upon personally but had forgotten to make equally clear to the British public.

So, will it make any difference? Few voters, even ones planning to support the Conservatives, are likely to have gone to bed on Monday night concerned by the thought of Cameron departing five years hence.

He knows himself that a last- minute departure is not possible: his successor will need 18 months or two years to settle in, which brings us back to the real timetable in Cameron’s head – a post-referendum departure in late-2017.

Majority failure

More importantly, Cameron’s public musings about life after politics may reflect the vulnerability he could face on May 8th if he fails to win a majority, as all but the most optimistic Conservative opinion believe will be the case.

His enemies will then circle. However, they will be cautious about striking, since Cameron's public standing is higher than any of theirs, bar Boris Johnson, who will not be fully match-ready until he stands down from the London mayoralty in 2016.

This way, Cameron could be signalling to them to keep their knives sheathed, that he will not be a permanent presence on the field; that a succession can be organised without an assassination.

His declaration is not like Tony Blair’s declaration in 2004 that he would not seek a fourth term since the UK was now in an era of fixed-term, five- year parliaments. The landscape in view now stretches further.

Cameron believes that voters have gotten used to him. He thinks that voters, even those who loathe his politics, believe he looks like a prime minister, bar his occasional Flashmanesque bullying episodes during prime minister’s questions.

Many see him as relatively normal, even if remotely rich; but that he remains understandable since he does not appear to be as obsessed with politics in the way that voters found so off-putting in Gordon Brown.

So much of the froth can be ignored. However, there is one caveat. Some voters doubtful about the Conservatives are ready to tolerate Cameron because of their doubts about Labour's Ed Miliband.

Following Monday's kitchen episode, however, they have a new ingredient to consider. Instead of saying, "Vote Tory, Get Dave", Cameron is now implicitly saying, "Vote Tory, Get Me and Then Get George, or Theresa, or Boris". This list could even include foreign secretary Philip Hammond.

With the exception of Johnson, those offers do not necessarily increase the Conservatives’ attraction to voters in six weeks’ time.