Cameron’s tough talk on immigration sparked by Ukip electoral threat

Another week, another chapter in Britain's immigration debate. Eight years ago Nigel Farage of the UK Independence Party (Ukip) ran for election to the House of Commons in a Kent constituency.

He did miserably, getting just 2,079 votes, nearly 20,000 votes behind the victor. Today, however, Farage's attention is once again turning to the Garden of England.

In 2010 the Conservative Laura Sandys won comfortably in South Thanet, taking 48 per cent of the vote. Sandys has decided it is time to stand down as an MP in 2015, and she may be wise. An opinion poll in the constituency this week puts the Conservatives in third place, 20 points down on Sandys's result three years ago.

If the election was held today, the poll suggests Labour would take the seat with 35 per cent of the vote. However, Ukip lies second, on 30 per cent, without even having a named candidate on a ballot paper. In 2015, Ukip's candidate may be Farage.

Changing mood
The changing mood in places such as Thanet explains much about prime minister David Cameron's latest moves this week to soothe fears about immigration in Britain.

Firstly, immigrants will be denied the right to unemployment or housing benefits for three months, while those who end up homeless will be deported.

Secondly, and more importantly, he wants changes to 60-year-old rules that have allowed for the free movement of peoples in the European Union after transition periods.

Cameron argues this has brought about unprecedented and unintended population movements and cannot be allowed to occur again, if other countries join.

Instead, he proposes that restrictions should stay in place until the GDP of a new member rises above an agreed threshold, or that richer states should be able to impose quotas.

Cameron's suggestion, for once, has met with approving noises in other EU states, including Germany and France, rather than the usual peremptory dismissal that greets London's words.

However, the future is not Cameron’s immediate headache. Instead, it is the numbers entering Britain now, or, more importantly, the reaction of many British to the numbers coming.

Just over 500,000 people immigrated to the UK in the year to June, compared with the 517,000 that came in the previous 12 months.

Meanwhile, emigration from the UK is down: just over 320,000 people left, leaving a net population increase of 182,000 – up 15,000 on the year before.

More than 200,000 immigrants declared an intention to work, higher than the number who came to study – the first time this has happened since 2009.

A breakdown of the figures illustrates the EU’s woes: the number of Spaniards arriving jumped by 50 per cent, the number of Portuguese was up by 43 per cent, 44 per cent more Greeks arrived and 35 per cent more Italians.

Mr Cameron's remarks on Tuesday provoked complaints from the European Commission, which warned that Britain will be seen as "nasty" by other EU states.

Strikingly, however, he faced little if any backlash at home. His coalition partner Nick Clegg said welfare curbs were reasonable, while Labour is terrified of being seen as soft on the issue.

From January 1st, Romanians and Bulgarians will be allowed to work freely in the UK. The Bulgarian ambassador to London says a few thousand will come. Others put the figure in the tens of thousands.

For now, the tough talk from David Cameron, if nothing else, helps to hide the fact that he can do nothing about the Romanians and the Bulgarians on January 1st.

Sound and fury
Some of his pledges to restrict benefits are sound and fury, since EU states already have the right to restrict benefits to those who have not been in work, or are not seeking to get it. Equally, newly-arrived immigrants do not have the right to apply for housing benefits in their first three months.

Not all of the Conservatives’ woes, however, can be put down to immigration, or to the challenge that may come in May 2015 from Ukip.

Three-quarters of those polled in Thanet who said they will vote Ukip went on to say that they would not vote for the Conservatives, even if there was no Ukip candidate.

Meanwhile, just over half said they would vote Ukip rather than Conservative – even if that means that Labour's Ed Miliband becomes prime minister.

If the poll results are replicated during the election campaign, the Conservatives really will have a problem since they won’t be able to use “a Labour scare” to frighten voters back into the Tory fold.