Brexit talks on a sticky wicket but no one is pulling up stumps yet

When Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen sit down for dinner in Brussels on Wednesday evening, it will be in an atmosphere of deepening pessimism on both sides of the negotiations. As Michel Barnier told EU foreign ministers on Tuesday that no deal was now more likely that a deal, Johnson was himself musing about the talks' failure.

“We are always hopeful, but there may come a moment when we have to acknowledge that it is time to draw stumps, and that is just the way it is,” he said, referring to the end of play in cricket.

For all the rhetorical gloom encircling the negotiations, the actions on both sides tell a more promising story. Tuesday's announcement that the joint committee chaired by Michael Gove and Maros Sefcovic had resolved in principle all outstanding issues about the implementation of the withdrawal agreement and the Northern Ireland protocol was an unexpected breakthrough.

The joint committee process is separate from the trade negotiations, but Tuesday’s agreement is evidence that even the most apparently intractable disagreements between Britain and the EU can be resolved. And the deal has allowed the British government to withdraw treaty-breaking clauses from the Internal Market Bill and to pull similar clauses from a forthcoming taxation Bill.

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Leverage

The clauses, which Johnson hoped would give him more leverage in the talks, instead became a trap that increased the price of an agreement and the cost of failing to reach a deal. His threat to break international law pushed the EU into demanding stronger safeguards and enforcement mechanisms and threatened to undermine his relationship with US president-elect Joe Biden if there was no deal.

If Johnson's retreat is self-interested, it also removes an obstacle in the way of a trade deal with the EU ahead of his meeting with von der Leyen. The European Commission said on Tuesday that the meeting would not be a negotiating session but would seek to unblock the talks before handing them back to the negotiators.

Barnier and his British counterpart David Frost have made an audit of the remaining differences which will form the basis of the two leaders' talks. Von der Leyen will have a chance to discuss any possible compromises with EU leaders at Thursday's European Council and negotiations could, if they don't break down, continue until next week.

Each side believes the other still wants a deal and, despite the deadlock on fisheries, the level playing field and governance, neither looks ready to pull up stumps just yet.