Brexit: campaign intensifies as vote too close to call

The campaign to keep Britain in the EU will move up a gear this week with the release of a UK treasury report on the economic cost of leaving and an intervention in the referendum debate by US president Barack Obama. The intensification of the campaign comes as polls show the referendum on June 23rd too close to call, although most give the Remain side a slight lead.

Mr Obama is expected to warn about the geopolitical consequences of a British exit from the EU during a visit to London this week which coincides with Queen Elizabeth's 90th birthday. London mayor Boris Johnson has accused the president of hypocrisy and Chris Grayling, one of the cabinet ministers campaigning for Brexit, questioned on Sunday whether Mr Obama knew what he was talking about.

"I don't for a moment think that President Obama would tolerate a situation where the US gave away as much of its sovereignty as we have to Brussels. It is inconceivable. In my view, he perhaps doesn't understand the nature of the transfer of power that has taken place. I can only think he doesn't realise," he told the BBC's Andrew Marr.

The treasury's detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of EU membership is expected to warn that leaving could trigger an economic recession, with a sharp drop in exports and widespread job losses. French economy minister Emmanuel Macron warned yesterday that Britain would be "killed" in global trade negotiations if it leaves the EU, adding that a post-Brexit Britain would have a similar status to Jersey or Guernsey.

"Today, you are strong because you are part of the EU. When you discuss your steel industry with China, you are credible because you are part of the EU, not because you are just UK. You will be completely killed otherwise," he said.

Tough negotiating stance

Mr Macron’s warning followed remarks by German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble at the weekend, suggesting that Berlin would adopt a tough negotiating stance in post-Brexit talks with Britain. Campaigners on the Leave side have sought to play down the likely economic damage caused by Brexit, arguing that, as a big exporter to Britain,

Germany

would ensure that beneficial trade terms continue.

Former chancellor Ken Clarke, who wants Britain to remain in the EU, warned on Saturday that David Cameron "wouldn't last 30 minutes" as prime minister if Britain votes to leave.

Pro-Brexit Conservative MP David Davis said on Sunday that Mr Cameron should stay on as prime minister but appoint someone "who believed in the negotiation" to lead the exit talks.

Mr Grayling insisted, however, that Mr Cameron should remain prime minister and lead the negotiations with the EU if there is a Leave vote.

"I actively want David Cameron to stay, not only because he's a very good prime minister, but because he actually has got the relationships we need around Europe to build the negotiating process," he said.

“It would be disastrous, in my view, for the Leave cause if we vote to leave and then we get distracted by a Conservative leadership contest. He must stay, I want him to stay.”