Brexit analysis: Labour voters key to Remain success

David Cameron stepped back from the referendum campaign on Monday to allow Gordon Brown and other Labour heavyweights take centre stage.

The relentless “blue on blue” battling within the Conservative Party is not only unremittingly negative but is causing many Labour supporters to tune out of a debate in which they find none of the protagonists sympathetic.

Brown's intervention was almost unique in the campaign so far because it spoke about the issues at stake in the referendum in a European context. He suggested that Britain should use its six-month EU presidency next year to address the concerns of Labour voters, many of whom are flirting with a vote for Brexit.

He called for an EU employment plan that would create full employment in Britain and a fast reduction in joblessness across Europe. Improvements to the digital economy and the energy and services markets could, he maintained, create half a million jobs in Britain over the next decade.

EU-wide action

Britain’s €50 billion share of the EU’s infrastructure fund could be used to finance regeneration and rebuilding infrastructure in some of the hardest-hit steel and industrial communities. A European energy pool could cut prices for consumers, improve environmental standards and EU-wide action against tax havens would, he said, be more effective than the UK acting alone.

Labour politicians usually cite the EU’s social chapter as an argument for staying in, but Brown called for it to be deepened and expanded to offer protection to workers on zero-hours and other insecure contracts.

The biggest complaint voters have about migration concerns pressure on public services like the NHS and schools in places where populations are rising. Brown wants an enhanced EU solidarity fund for communities where migration trends have put undue pressure on hospitals, schools and other services.

This last proposal could find support throughout the EU where many cities and regions are experiencing similar problems coping with a sudden rise in population because of migration. Labour’s hope must be that its supporters’ complaints about immigration are a proxy for their frustration about overburdened public services which are already threadbare after years of budget tightening.

If the two concerns can be disentangled, the Labour voters who hold the key to victory in next week’s referendum, may be persuaded that the risks involved in backing Brexit are not worth the potential rewards.