Analysis: Boris Johnson’s episodic credibility problems leave doubt promises will be fulfilled

Queen Elizabeth, who is experiencing “episodic mobility problems” was unable to travel to Westminster to deliver the queen’s speech, leaving it to Prince Charles to speak the words in a tone almost Beckettian in its expressionlessness. The speech envisages 38 Bills but Boris Johnson’s episodic credibility problems ensured that nobody at Westminster is betting on most of them becoming law.

The Commons debate on the speech was dominated by two things that were not in it: action to deal with the cost-of-living crisis and a Bill to scrap the Northern Ireland protocol. Johnson hinted at an emergency budget within days but the treasury wasted no time in ruling it out, making clear that there would be no major fiscal event until the autumn.

The queen’s speech included a line promising that “My government will prioritise support for the Belfast [Good Friday] Agreement and its institutions.” This was a coded reference to Johnson’s threat to introduce legislation to unilaterally disapply the parts of the Northern Ireland protocol that require checks on goods moving across the Irish Sea from Great Britain.

Ex-PM’s warning

Early briefings suggested that he was considering a Bill that would give ministers the power to disapply the protocol but aides to foreign secretary Liz Truss have upped the ante in recent days, briefing that the Bill would immediately scrap the protocol rules. When Theresa May warned about what such action would say about Britain's willingness to abide by treaties it has signed, Johnson rolled his eyes.

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Jeffrey Donaldson made a very good speech rehearsing unionist objections to the protocol on grounds of sovereignty and democratic accountability, quoting the prime minister's pledge to the DUP's conference that there would be an Irish Sea border "over his dead body". He performed an abrupt key change towards the end to announce that, much as he yearned to devote the rest of his political life to Stormont, he would remain at Westminster until the protocol was resolved.

London alone

Johnson heard directly from Taoiseach Micheál Martin about how the European Union was likely to respond to unilateral action from London, and Germany's Olaf Scholz and Belgium's Alexander de Croo ruled out any renegotiation of the protocol. The Bill could be announced within days but it must then be drafted, introduced and debated in the Commons before going to the Lords, who could reject it.

The government can override the Lords’ veto using the Parliament Act but only after a year, so the new Bill could become law no earlier than the second half of 2023. Or like so many of the Bills in the queen’s speech, never.