Outcome far from certain as fresh blood enters race for EU’s top jobs

The race for the top jobs in the European Union intensified this week following the decision by Finnish prime minister Jyrki Katainen to step down from his position in order to seek an EU role.

His announcement took the EU community by surprise, while also unsettling the political landscape in Helsinki, where the five-party coalition government is looking increasingly fragile.

The decision by Katainen to relinquish his role and instead try his luck for an EU job may be seen as proof that the new proposed method of choosing the European Commission president works.

Critics of the process – which envisages that the next head of the European Commission will be the candidate of the political grouping which wins the most votes in next month’s European elections – have claimed that the system inevitably precludes sitting prime ministers from competing for the job.

What political leader is going to disclose their interest in an EU position, and risk being perceived as a lame duck prime minister?

Katainen's move proves that if you want an EU job badly enough, you will.

Opponent
In reality, however, the so-called "Spitzenkandidat" process is meeting fierce resistance from some member states.

Britain has been one of the most vocal opponents, believing that the European Parliament has effectively hijacked the process. It staunchly rejects the idea that the parliament's political groupings should choose who should become the EU's top official, arguing that it is not specifically stated in the Lisbon Treaty.

Britain is not alone. In a speech in Berlin last week Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte criticised the process, saying that national parliaments had far greater legitimacy than the European Parliament when it comes to the selection process.

Katainen’s announcement opens up intriguing questions about the certainty of Jean-Claude Juncker’s candidature for the position of European Commission president. Barely five weeks after the former Luxembourg prime minister was selected in Dublin by the European People’s Party (EPP) as their candidate to lead the next European Commission, Katainen – himself a member of the EPP – has explicitly voiced his interest in an EU job, including that of commission head.

Top jobs
Katainen's timing is interesting. The earlier-than-expected announcement two weeks ago of the successor to Anders Fogh Rasmussen as secretary general of Nato may have pressed him to clarify his position, as the top jobs begin to be divvied out.

But his decision to declare his interest after the official selection process had closed is undoubtedly a rebuff of the preferred-candidate selection process, perhaps reflecting an apathy shared by other member states.

Finland is not the only country to disturb the "preferred candidate" process. Following last week's French cabinet reshuffle, outgoing finance minister Pierre Moscovici said he expected to be nominated for a senior European Commission post, though this may also include the role of commissioner.

The European Parliament has reacted defiantly to the developments. In a joint statement last week the parliament's three biggest political groupings said the election of the next commission president "will be the result of a transparent process, not the product of back-room deals".

'Fantasy'
Jean-Claude Juncker appeared even more piqued. "The next president of the European Commission will either be me or Martin Schulz. Everything else is fantasy," he tweeted on Monday.

While the former euro group head has remained relatively low-profile since his election as the EPP’s candidate in Dublin, the Juncker campaign stepped up a gear this week.

On Monday, a smiling Juncker, who has appointed senior EU official Martin Selmayr as campaign manager, stepped on board a shiny new "Juncker for president" election bus in Brussels.

Two days earlier he appeared at the CDU party congress in Berlin, where he assured Germany that he would oppose euro bonds. Yesterday evening he held his first live debate with the Socialists and Democrats' candidate Martin Schulz on French TV channel, France 24.

The S&D candidate has also been busy setting out his stall, but is facing an uphill battle in securing widespread support. The British Labour Party has bluntly refused to support Schulz’s candidature.

Britain is believed to favour Helle Thorning-Schmidt, the Danish prime minister who has moved from being a respected European politician to something of a global superstar following her appearance in the infamous "selfie" with US president Barack Obama and British prime minister David Cameron.

Political machinations
So far, Thorning-Schmidt, who is married to the son of former Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock, has remained elusive about her interest in the role.

The various political machinations that are taking place across Europe have potential implications for Enda Kenny, who is still perceived as a strong candidate for a senior EU role.

As election day approaches, the outcome of the process to appoint Europe’s top officials, is anything but certain.