Binyamin Netanyahu's strategy to win an unprecedented sixth term as Israeli prime minister is based on the 30-20-10 formula: 30 seats for his ruling Likud party; 20 seats combined for his ultra-Orthodox and extreme-right allies; and 10 seats for the right-wing Yamina party.
This would give “Bibi” the support of parties with 60 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, on the cusp of a majority and, based on the polls, he may just pull it off when Israelis vote on Tuesday in another effort to end the ongoing political deadlock that has lasted for two years.
He can count on the support of the religious parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the extreme-right Religious Zionist Party. However, Yamina’s leader, former defence minister Naftali Bennett, has refused to commit. He would love to see the end of the Netanyahu era, but if Yamina’s support will make the difference between another Netanyahu coalition or an attempt by all the anti-Bibi parties to cobble together an implausible alternative, it’s assumed he will choose to join Netanyahu in order to avoid a fifth election.
On Monday, in an effort to shore up his right-wing base, Bennett signed a pledge that he would not allow the formation of a government headed by the centrist Yesh Atid, the largest anti-Bibi party, according to the polls. Commentators interpreted the move as an indication that Bennett would be likely to join a Netanyahu-led coalition.
Vaccine bounce
The fact that Israel leads the world when it comes to Covid-19 vaccinations is the key factor explaining why another Netanyahu term is the most likely outcome of Tuesday's vote. The normalisation of ties with key Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates and Morocco, engineered by Netanyahu in recent months, was also a big vote winner.
However, a number of factors make the outcome of Tuesday’s vote still difficult to predict.
No fewer than four parties are hovering close to the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25 per cent of the overall vote required to gain Knesset representation. The outcome and the overall pro-Bibi/anti-Bibi balance will be determined by which of these four parties enter the Knesset.
The polls show an unusually high percentage of undecided voters, accounting for up to 12 seats. That could produce surprising results that none of the polls have projected.
Another unknown factor making it difficult to predict the final result is voter turnout. In each of the past three elections, the pollsters and the commentators’ assessment was that voter turnout would drop with each new election, but the opposite happened. The larger the voter turnout, the more difficult it will be for the parties on the verge of the electoral threshold to cross the line.