Likud’s surprise win in Israeli elections puts peace process on hold

After pulling off a convincing victory in Tuesday’s election, confounding the pundits and the polls, Binyamin Netanyahu’s immediate task will be to cobble together a stable coalition.

The margin of his victory ended the option of a national unity government and his likely coalition of 67 Knesset members will include all the right-wing and religious parties and the centrist Kulanu, led by Moshe Kahlon, expected to become Israel’s next finance minister.

In contrast with the outgoing government, which was full of internal contradictions from day one, and was characterised by ideological and personal battles, the new coalition is expected to be less turbulent.

The problems are expected to come in Israel’s international relations. During the election campaign, Netanyahu vowed that a Palestinian state would not be established if he was re-elected prime minister. He also promised more Jewish settlement construction in the West Bank and east Jerusalem.

Saeb Erekat, chief Palestinian negotiator in the peace talks with Israel that collapsed in April, said in a statement that Netanyahu’s win showed “the success of a campaign based on settlements, racism, apartheid and the denial of the fundamental rights of the Palestinian people”.

Two-state solution

For years there has been speculation over whether Netanyahu was genuinely committed to a two-state solution or whether he was using the peace talks with the Palestinians to allay international pressure on Israel without intending to reach an agreement entailing territorial concessions on Israel’s part.

His comments during the election seem to have provided the answer. For the foreseeable future the peace process is on hold and the Palestinians can be expected to pursue unilateral diplomatic moves, on hold during the election campaign, seeking international recognition for statehood and charging Israel with war crimes at the International Criminal Court.

The right-wing government, this time lacking the moderate face of Tzipi Livni, who headed the talks with the Palestinians, is likely to increase international pressure on Israel and could lead to European sanctions.

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini congratulated Netanyahu on his victory, saying the EU was “committed to working with the incoming Israeli government” and to relaunching the Israel-Palestinian peace process.

Earlier this week, EU foreign ministers named Fernando Gentilini as the bloc’s new special representative for the Middle East, in the hope of getting the stalled peace process back on track.

Kerry congratulations

US secretary of state John Kerry also contacted Netanyahu last night to congratulate him.The extremely tense relations between President Barack Obama and Netanyahu, exacerbated by the prime minister’s recent speech to the US Congress warning of the dangers of a nuclear deal with Iran, are no secret. It is clear that the White House, along with many international leaders, was hoping for a Netanyahu defeat.

In a snub to Israel, Obama earlier this month appointed Dr Robert Malley as the person in charge of the Middle East at the White House. Mr Malley has met Hamas officials and blamed Israel for the collapse of the 2000 Camp David peace talks with the Palestinians.

The Obama administration, less reliant now on the support of the pro-Israel lobby, may decide to end Washington’s automatic veto on anti-Israel motions at the United Nations and other international bodies.

The dispute over the impending nuclear agreement with Iran is only likely to worsen bilateral tensions and further Israel’s feeling of isolation.