All three factions involved in Thursday's clashes in Beirut, in which seven people died, have called for an investigation into the violence, although they are assured that an investigation will be frustrated by Lebanon's political elite.
Local commentators argue that Lebanese will have to accept that the armed elements involved – Hizbullah, Amal and the Lebanese Forces – will enjoy impunity. This is the Lebanese way of dealing with such events. Investigations, arrests and prosecutions could produce fresh confrontations, unrest and civil strife.
The attack by Maronite Christian Lebanese Forces snipers on Shia Hizbullah and Amal protesters at the justice ministry has shocked most Lebanese, especially survivors of the 15-year civil conflict that ended in 1990, which killed more than 100,000, drove a million into exile, and devastated the country.
The ministry is located in Ain al-Rummaneh district, where in April 1975 an assault by another Maronite faction, the Phalange, on a busload of Palestinian civilians launched the war from which Lebanon has never recovered.
The trigger then was a shooting at a Maronite church carried out by the mainly Greek Orthodox Syrian Social Nationalist party but wrongly blamed on Palestinians. Perpetrators of both incidents were never arrested.
The trigger this time was the summons issued by investigative judge Tarek Bitar of two senior figures in the Amal movement for interrogation over the August 2020 explosion at Beirut port, which killed 215 and devastated adjacent neighbourhoods.
Bias
Hizbullah and Amal accuse the judge of bias and want him replaced. Neither ex-finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil, nor ex-public works minister Ghazi Zeiter, have appeared to answer charges of negligence and accuse the judge of exceeding his authority.
While no leading Hizbullah member has so far been called, former prime minister Hassan Diab, ex-interior minister Nouhad Mashnouk – both Sunnis – and another ex-public works minister, Youssef Fenianos – a Maronite – have also rejected the judge's summons and insist on his dismissal.
If he is recused, the investigation is likely to be dropped despite pressure from families of victims and survivors of the port blast, the Lebanese public, France and the US.
Lebanon’s political establishment wants to end the investigation as it could lead to inquiries into allegations of mismanagement and corruption demanded by activists who took to the country’s streets and squares two years ago to demand reform, and an end to the sectarian system of governance which has inflicted two civil wars on Lebanon.
Cabinet
If Judge Bitar continues with the investigation, Hizbullah and Amal have threatened to withdraw ministers they nominated in the recently formed cabinet, which foreign donors insist should be a government of apolitical, technocrat “independents”. This threat demonstrates, again, that Lebanon cannot escape the grip of deeply entrenched sectarian politicians.
If the government falls, Lebanon will not receive $21 billion in international funds to rescue the economy from collapse at a time when the value of the currency has fallen by 90 per cent, inflation is 85 per cent, and according to the UN, 82 per cent of Lebanese live below the poverty line.