Iran is finally cut loose from ‘axis of evil’ shackles

The historic deal over Tehran's nuclear programme can bridge the gulf between Iran's isolated and sanctions-ridden citizens and the people of the rest of the world. The deal has massive support in Iran, where the economy has failed to grow by an estimated 20 per cent over the past decade due to the sanctions regime.

Iranians welcome the deal, which will end embargoes on essential medicines, equipment and consumer goods, free $100 billion in Iranian funds frozen in foreign banks, permit unlimited oil exports, and end restrictions on trade and transport.

Popular attitudes in Iran mirror those in the US, where 60 per cent of the populace supports the deal, although hardliners in both Iran’s parliament and the US Congress are expected to try to torpedo it.

Hardliners in Tehran are, however, at a disadvantage. They will have to do battle not only with president Hassan Rouhani and foreign minister Mohamed Javad Zarif, but also supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who authorised negotiations and can be expected to back the result. His word is the last word.

Highly influential Republican guards commanders, normally hardliners, have expressed support for the deal, which would free from embargoes the corps’ extensive business holdings in defence production, construction, and oil, which earn billions of dollars annually.

The bazaaris – the wealthy merchant class – and small businessmen are eager to exploit the economic opening and export markets.

End to ostracism

Iran’s civil society has longed for a deal that could put an end to ostracism and the punitive sanctions regime, which has harmed the economy and damaged the oil sector, Iran’s main revenue source.

An opinion survey showed that 71 per cent of respondents expect economic benefits once sanctions are lifted, while 61 per cent believe Mr Rouhani would be strengthened enough to effect reforms.

On the global political plane, Iran has escaped the “axis of evil” (Iran, Iraq and North Korea) proclaimed by US president George W Bush in 2001. This amounts to a moral victory for Tehran and acceptance of the legitimacy of the revolutionary regime that ousted the Shah and decades of western hostility and sanctions.

Influence to grow

Freed from sanctions as well as the burden of developing a large nuclear programme, Iran’s political and economic influence in its region is bound to grow, upsetting Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Sunni Saudis see Shia Iran’s revolutionary ideology as a challenge to their puritan Wahhabi sect and Tehran as an opponent to Riyadh’s efforts at power projection.

Israeli leader Binyamin Netanyahu argues that Iran will get the bomb in spite of the closely monitored deal. This will threaten Israel, the region's only nuclear power, he said, and spur a nuclear arms race.

Peaceful coexistence and, perhaps, reconciliation with the West could change the political dynamics of a region dominated by bilateral ties between the US and Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Jordan, Egypt and Turkey.

Relations between the US and Israel have reached rock bottom since president Barack Obama pursued a peace policy involving the emergence of a Palestinian state, a development rejected by Netanyahu and the Israeli right-wing.

A country with 77.5 million people, vast oil wealth and unexploited commercial potential, Iran is certain to loom large on the regional stage, particularly since the US, the power leading the air campaign against Islamic State, needs Iran’s backing in the ongoing conflict.

Without Iranian support, large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq could remain IS bases and hotbeds for the radicalisation of the Middle East, North Africa and beyond.