Erdogan plays up possible Turkish mediation role in Ukraine war

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on Tuesday with the aim of elevating the "Istanbul process", which remains the sole mediation effort to secure a ceasefire in the Ukraine war and launch peace talks.

While stressing the need for a ceasefire and humanitarian evacuation corridors, Erdogan offered to host a summit between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders, which he said would be “an important threshold for negotiations”.

Mr Erdogan's call followed Monday's discussions in Ankara with UN secretary general António Guterres before he travelled to Moscow and Kyiv. In a joint statement they "reaffirmed their common objective is to end the war as soon as possible and create conditions to end the suffering of civilians".

Mr Erdogan has striven to project neutrality to qualify as mediator in fresh negotiations between the combatants. Having failed to achieve a ceasefire and halt the war several weeks ago, he maintains contacts with both sides.

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However, Ankara's weekend closure of its airspace to Russian military and civilian aircraft flying to Syria could compromise Turkish neutrality. Russian aircraft now have to fly over Iran and Iraq to reach Moscow's air and naval bases in northern Syria.

Russia has aided the Syrian government in its fight against Turkish-backed militias and jihadis, enabling Syria's army to regain control of 70 per cent of the country.

Citing the 1936 Montreux Convention, which governs passage by warships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, Turkey earlier denied access to Russian warships, trapping them in the Black Sea and preventing reinforcement of Russia's naval presence there.

US sanctions

As a Nato member, Turkey is obliged to buy western arms but attracted US sanctions after buying Russia's S-400 missile defence system in 2017. However, Turkey has provided Ukraine with sophisticated drones for use in the war.

Turkey refuses to impose sanctions that harm its own national interests. It continues to welcome Russian oligarchs and rely on Russia for 45 per cent of its natural gas and 17 per cent of its oil as well as grain, sunflower oil and tourists. Russia is building Turkey’s $20 billion nuclear power plant.

Turkey adopted a "Eurasianist" pivot in 2016 and has regional politico-military reasons for remaining on good terms with Russia, which has close ties with central Asia, China and India.

Having backed opposite sides in the Syrian conflict, since 2019 Ankara and Moscow have co-operated in keeping a lid on fighting between jihadis and the Syrian army in northwestern Idlib province. Russia has kept the Syrian army from attacking Turkish-occupied enclaves of Syrian territory in the north while Turkey has reciprocated by closing its border to jihadis seeking to enter Syria.

While the ban on Russian flights to Syria could signal reduced Turkish co-operation with Russia, Turkey is unlikely to capitulate to heavy US pressure to sanction Russia.

Writing on al-Monitor's website on April 22nd, veteran Turkish analyst Cengiz Candar argued, "Given the strong Eurasianist element within the Turkish power structure and the prevailing pro-Russian mood in the pro-government circles, it is far from certain that Turkey would end up on the side of its formal western allies."