Analysis: Palestinian attacks stoke fears of third intifada

Last Friday 19-year-old law student Muhamad Halabi proclaimed “the third intifada has begun” on his Facebook profile only hours before stabbing to death two Orthodox Jewish men and wounding two women and a child in Jerusalem’s Old City.

This incident has been followed by a spate of Palestinian attacks on Israeli soldiers and civilians.

Facing a third intifada, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has warned Palestinians against "militarising" their confrontations with Israeli security forces but did not urge activists to stop.

The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), which he heads, has called for Palestinians to "unite for an act of national defence". Palestinian security forces reportedly no longer prevent or halt Palestinian protests against Israel's occupation or intervene between Palestinian demonstrators and Israeli forces.

These three developments reveal that Abbas, the PLO and Fatah are no longer in denial. Admitting – even indirectly – a new intifada is in progress is difficult and painful for Abbas personally and for Fatah politically. They had renounced the armed struggle and bet solely on the failed Oslo peace process and lost: no Palestinian state emerged.

Two-thirds of Palestinians now want Abbas to resign and 51 per cent call for dissolution of the Palestinian Authority.

Live fire

While

Israel

remains uncertain about whether the rise in attacks on Israeli security forces and civilians has reached intifada level, prime minister

Binyamin Netanyahu

has authorised the use of live fire against stone-throwers, called for long prison terms for them and ordered the demolition of homes of Palestinians killers of Israelis.

Observers claim this rising does not follow the pattern set by the First Intifada, the “Rising of the Stones” (1987-93), or the Second Intifada, the “Rising of Bombs and Bullets” (2000-2005) and say the 4,200 Palestinian deaths and thousands of injuries during these risings have discouraged the current young generation from tackling the Israelis.

However, conditions today are different than during the earlier risings.

Denied a state and hemmed in by Israeli soldiers and settlers, Palestinians are angrier and more frustrated than ever before. An opinion poll published last month by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Research reveals 85 per cent believe Israel intends to annex the lands occupied in 1967 and “expel their population or deny them their rights”.

Fifty-seven per cent not only favour resistance but also a return to armed struggle. Abbas’s warning against “militarisation” may be ignored.

Intifada of despair

A third intifada would be an intifada of despair. It is a creeping intifada, gathering momentum slowly. It has been called a “lone wolf” intifada because, so far, a majority of anti-Israeli attacks have been carried out by individuals armed with knives or vehicles.

However, five Palestinians alleged to have Hamas connections have been detained by Israel in connection with the shooting dead of an Israeli couple travelling in the West Bank.

This intifada would also be an intifada of place: confined by Israel to islets of West Bank territory or to east Jerusalem, Palestinians are lashing out on home turf. Finally, this is an intifada of youngsters who believe they have no future living under Israeli occupation.

They not only reject Israeli control over every aspect of their lives but also abjure their own politicians and policemen who co-operate with Israel.

This time round, Palestinians could target those who fail to support resistance. The US officer involved in restructuring and training Palestinian security forces, Lt Gen Keith Dayton, warned Israel and the US their members could join the fight against Israel if there is no progress in the peace process. Public pressure will ensure they do.