Margin of victory the only concern for Turkey’s still dominant AK Party

Few outside Turkey had heard of Soma before May 13th, 2014. More than 300 coal miners died that day when the shaft they were working in collapsed around them.

Marking the first anniversary of the disaster last month, thousands of activists backed by more than a dozen opposition political parties marched through Soma calling for Turkey's government, led by the Justice and Development or AK Party, to resign. Relatives of the dead miners lambasted President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the delight of an excited crowd.

In a way, the reaction to Soma's tragedy tells the broader story of Turkish politics and society today. The widespread anger and opposition being vented against the AK Party since authorities tried to raze an Istanbul park in June 2013 has been loud and colourful. But though its critics, including opposition political parties, excel at social media campaigns and street protests, they have found convincing the Turkish electorate to vote out the AK Party government a rather stiffer task.

If recent ballots offer an insight into how Sunday’s parliamentary election may pan out, the ruling party looks to be sitting pretty. Last year, Erdogan swept to the post of president, and saw the AK Party, of which he is a founder and former leader, handily win local elections.

Since December 2013, he has faced down a wide-reaching corruption scandal and criticism of his authoritarian methods from both at home and abroad, while the construction projects that have given work and modern housing to millions continue despite the international financial crisis.

Today, he seeks to take his place in the pantheon of Turkish – and Ottoman – history by amending the constitution to allow himself to run the country in his capacity as president of Turkey.

Currently on 312 parliamentary seats, the AK Party needs to win 330 seats on Sunday to enable it to call a referendum on the constitutional change required for Erdogan to secure the executive powers he is seeking.

But much has changed in 12 months. Turkey’s economy, which Erdogan helped rebuild from ashes over the past 12 years, is foundering. The cost of food has shot up, including staples such as bread by 25 per cent, and home sellers are increasingly asking for dollar payments. The Turkish lira has fallen by a third against the US dollar over the past two years meaning imported goods have moved out of reach of many.

"The Turkish electorate generally casts its vote based on a given party's success in boosting the economy," wrote Kemal Kirisci of the Brookings Institution. "Instead of aiming for sorely needed structural reforms to boost the economy, Erdogan has chosen to attack the independence of regulatory bodies [and] dictate central bank policies."

Anger

The fact that Erdogan has to all extents and purposes been campaigning against the government’s opponents and critics in as far away as Germany has angered many Turks. But under the soft evening shadow of the Suleymaniye mosque, Istanbul’s biggest, few see it that way this week.

"AK Party – super," Ismail Giritoglu, who runs a large textiles shop, puts it succulently. "The economy is excellent, in my opinion, for me," he adds, while totting up a huge order for shawls and scarves from a well-dressed customer. Down the street, a nargelieh water pipe proprietor says he also plans to vote for the AK Party. "Everything they do is a success," says Hasan Kurt.

For the first time in Turkey's history, the oft-maligned Kurdish minority may have a significant say in the future of the country. The emergent Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) which, in addition to Kurds, claims to represent socialists, feminists and progressive interests including those seeking to recognise the Armenian genocide as such, could become kingmaker by swallowing up the conservative Kurdish vote that in the past voted AK Party.

Dissatisfied

However, it must first reach the 10 per cent threshold required for entry to parliament for all parties. Polls suggest it’s within a whisker of doing so, but only if it can win over dissatisfied government backers and rural Kurds.

The HDP is viewed by many as the political wing of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which has fought an internecine war against the Turkish state since the early 1980s. This has served as ammunition for AK Party candidates on the campaign trail.

“AKP has for a while failed to present a promise, a programme for Turkey’s people,” said Sezai Temelli, a first-time HDP candidate running in Istanbul on Sunday. “[The] economy has declined, democratic developments have regressed, pressures on daily lives have strengthened and all of these have led to frustrations among wider segments.”

Tellingly, Temelli is cautious about whether the HDP will reach the parliamentary threshold, and says some people expect that fraudulent activities may in fact produce an inaccurate count.

Whether or not the AK Party wins 330-plus seats on Sunday, the spike in political violence is set to continue. An AK Party mayor was shot dead in Bursa last week and several HDP offices have been damaged and a bus driver working on its campaign killed in recent days. For all interests in Turkey's future an intense weekend lies ahead.